Research On Credit Risk Of China 's Investment Debt

After the international financial crisis in 2008,the central government launched a four trillion stimulus plan.The local government voted in the form of investment funds through the city investment company's financing platform,thus,the city investment bond market ushered in the golden period of development,regardless whether the number of issues issued or the total issued achieving a rapid growth.In 2012,owing to the CBRC furtherly tightening the bank financing platform loans,the bond market benefited from this,and further developed.In 2013,with the supervision of corporate bonds tending to be strict,after June,the funds were also more tense,and the size of the city's debt issuance and the amount has declined slightly.However,in the past two years,with China's economic slowdown,the central bank for the economic stability has taken a continuous easing monetary policy,so the market capital is more relaxed.In the second half of 2015,the stock market huge adjustment and stock and bond market substitution effect make the scale of the bond market a substantial expansion,thus the size of the city voting with the rapid growth of debt issuance.In 2016,the local government bonds issued up to 6 trillion,the city issued a significant amount of debt issuance.That a record high,more relaxed financing environment to a certain extent improve the city investment enterprise debt structure,making the debt turnover enhanced.With the city investment of debt expansion at the same time,a series of risks and problems began to emerge,for example,the city investment companies is mixed,the main business profitability is weak,financial data fraud,related parties to each other,the local government debt ratio is too high,debt risk,etc.These problems increased the city's debt risk and default risk.At the end of 2014,the State Council's opinions on strengthening the administration of local government debts(No.43)promulgated and financed the financial debts to repay the debts due.The provisions of debt classify into the budget management,while the financing platform companies may not add government Debt.Since 2016 only through the provincial government to issue local government bonds to borrow government debt.This series of policies means that the financing platform company's government financing functions are gradually being stripped.In the long term,the Company's own profitability and the ability to obtain cash flow are weak,and there is a certain degree of financial risk.With the further decoupling of the government credit and the city investment company,once the economic environment deteriorates,its payment risk will rise rapidly.In this context,it is of great theoretical and practical guidance to study the influencing factors of credit risk in city investment debt and give suggestions according to the research results.City investment debt has the dual attributes of corporate bonds and municipal debt,based on local government platform background,and has not divested the government financing functions of the situation.The city of debt funds paid in addition to financing from the project operating income,the issuer's financial situation,but also largely depends on the local government's financial support and implicit guarantees.The author regards the credit spread as the proxy variable of credit risk,and analyzes the influencing factors of the credit risk of the city investment debt from the micro level,including the local government factors,the main factors of the issuance and the factors of the bonds themselves,and set up the local government administrative level,The size of the issuance,the size of the issuer,the issuer's return on assets,the asset-liability ratio,the asset turnover rate,the bond issuance period,the remaining maturity period,the issue of the coupon rate,bond issue size,bond issue debt rating.This paper establishes a stepwise multiple regression model to find out the variables that have a significant effect on credit spreads,remove the indicators that are not strong,and modify the multiple regression model.The results of empirical analysis show that the credit spreads of the prefecture-level cities are the least in the variables with significant influence,instead,the city's debt rating,the remaining term,the size of the issuance assets,the return on assets and the credit related.There is a positive correlation between the corporate interest rate and the fiscal deficit rate.Through the empirical analysis of the influencing factors of the micro-level of the city debt,the author expresses his own views on the development and transformation of the city's investment debt,the alternative model and the risk prevention,so as to make the development of China's bond market in a stable,standardized and marketable advice.