Research On Market Effectiveness Of P2P Loan Interest In China

2003 Internet peer lending(P2P lending)once appeared on the Chinese market participants try to use.2010-2014 between our P2 P lending companies are more springing up like the rest of the market participants and rapid increases in heat only advantageous network in 2014 exceeded $ 20 billion loan size in the middle.At the same time,because the P2 P lending market by minimum intervention and market a high degree of academic attention to P2 P market is also more up.But this condition is limited to new industry,the scope of previous studies limited: if the overall market research,qualitative research Basic research-based;if the number of empirical research,the study is only one company or the market several companies.Because the lack of industry data,previous studies also difficult to relate to empirical industry as a whole.However,with the accumulation of industry data,followed by the total number of research priorities can empirical research industry shift.But before further use of the financial model of a basic problem is,in the end how the effectiveness of P2 P market model assumes that the relevant market has been reached? This is clearly the number of financial research in a basic problem.In these guidelines,this paper has been accumulated in the market overall operation data from the efficient market theory,empirical study of effectiveness of P2 P loan market.Meanwhile,in the correlation is not very adequate for our situation P2 P lending market characteristics described are still very important,so full qualitative analysis and empirical model of combining.Firstly,efficient markets and the theory of P2 P lending market review.Followed by an introduction to the efficient market theory,noting in particular the effectiveness of different interest rate markets and the traditional classification of the efficient market theory.Next is our P2 P lending market more detailed description,by comparing different loan market at home and abroad P2 P summed up the characteristics of 4:00.The combination of these features,this paper points out the theory of P2 P lending market can be achieved weak-state.Empirical Study links,Fama is a combination of the definition of the efficient market theory were demonstrated to achieve the effective interest rate in the market equation formula significance.And then used to run test were testing the randomness of time series analysis and time series data of P2 P lending market.In the final run test shows a progressive significance of less than 0.05,it does not pass the test run,the data is not random,does not meet the strong efficiency theory.The use of time series analysis,ARIMA model for the first difference data has been simulated,explanatory variable coefficients are significant,and under the dynamic prediction fit better.ARIMA model simulation shows the time series data with characteristics,does not meet the weak-theory.In order to better reflect the characteristics of the data,the paper followed by Merton model and simulate linear model data comparison shows random bad model simulation results with the previous results of the same analysis.The fit of the linear equation better reflect market interest rates P2 P influenced by external market interest rates.The fifth chapter discusses our P2 P lending market inefficiencies cause of the problem.This chapter explains the reasons of P2 P market inefficiencies from two aspects,one is the lack of professional competence of practitioners themselves,a P2 P lending market was dragged down by external inefficient market rate.In the analysis by external markets dragged down in this chapter vulnerable to external market impact from our P2 P market and by way of a simple game describes the drag effect of inefficient external markets.The final chapter of the full text summarized and made recommendations.