Analysis Of Western Region's Economic Increase Potential And Trend

Since the reform and opening up,Chinese economy has entered fast development period,but the development of Chinese area economy is unbalanced,the gap between mid-west areas is large.To shrink the development gap between areas,our country put forward in succession the strategic measures such as West Development Strategy.Under the strongly support by the country and the efforts made by the west area itself,the west areas have made great progress and gradually enter to the track of fast development.However,after the economic crises,the recovery of world economy slowed down,our country also faces the pressure of economy downturn.Under such context,how is the western region's increase potential and whether it can continue to increase has arouse extensive attention by different fields.Hence,it is essential to research on the western region's potential economic increase.This thesis starts from the analysis of the concept of potential production and sorts out the three calculating methods of potential production.In the specific calculation,the thesis use two mature methods,H-P filter method and production function method and calculate respectively the western region's potential production,potential economic increase rate and production gap.The two methods' comparative results indicate that the variation trend has powerful uniformity,which shows that the potential production results calculated by the thesis has high reliability.The thesis also analyzes the influencing factors of west areas' potential economy and the reasons for the difference between real economy and potential economy.Predicatively the future western region's economic development trend combined with the above analysis,because of policy implications,the short-term and long-term potential economic rate have different manifestations.On the whole,the economic increase of west areas has a good momentum,but also faces with many problems.In the following development,we need to stick to sustainable development,pay more attention to the cultivation of talents and improvement of labor force and focus on the changing trend of output gap.In order to explore the developmental potential and maintain the sustainable force of economic increase.