| As a carrier linked up global economic and a bridge measured price of foreign trade counties,exchange rate has become the core variable in open economy.With Chinese increasing economic power and trade linkage with the countries of the world,Renminbi exchange rate has become the focus of international society.Owing to huge foreign exchange reserves,frequent foreign exchange market intervention and relatively stable Renminbi exchange rate,international public opinion has repeatedly accused China as "currency manipulator".Hence,estimating Renminbi equilibrium exchange rate and misalignment and exchange rate intervention cause exchange rate misalignment or equilibrium has become an important issue in the domestic academia.This paper within the frame of behavioral equilibrium exchange rate,estimated the effect of central bank intervention to Renminbi real effective exchange rate variability and exchange rate misalignment.In the arrangement,this article has classified the literatures about Renminbi equilibrium exchange rate and central bank intervention firstly,then introduced equilibrium exchange rate and central bank intervention theory,and constructed a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model considerate central bank intervention as a temporary factor.Considerate the summary of existing literatures and data availability,this paper has constructed a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model conclude quantity of money,net foreign assets,economic openness,relative productivity and central bank intervention,then use the smooth transition regression model to the direct and indirect effect of central bank intervention to exchange rate and the combined effect of central bank intervention to exchange rate misalignment.The result is that the effect of central bank intervention to exchange rate is nonlinear,as central bank intervention over critical value the effect involves direct and indirect influence and indirect effect is larger than direct effect.Overall exchange rate misalignment level is about-7.67%-8.29%,average misalignment level is around 3%.The misalignment caused by central bank intervention is about-3%-1%which mainly by indirect effect and central bank intervention amends misalignment in most periods.By studying Renminbi equilibrium exchange rate and the effect of central bank intervention to exchange rate misalignment,this paper would like to rich research results in this field and given ideas to exchange rate reform.Basis on the results,this article propose several proposals to deepen exchange rate reform.Firstly,China should maintain necessary intervention on foreign exchange rate.Then,China should keep on promote the marketization of the exchange rate reform.Lastly,it is important to strengthen management of factors that influence currency misalignment. |
