Empirical Analysis On Influencing Factors Of Real Estate Price Fluctuation In Different Areas Of China

As a pillar industry of the national economy,the real estate has played a crucial role in the process of urbanization.However,the increase of property price has become an important tendency since 2003,which brings the great significance of searching the factor that impact the property price.Traditional research method can' t solve the problem of endogenous and invisible common factors which would create error in regression result.The article firstly qualitatively describe the regional difference of property price and its growth rate,and divide the 287 cities into three areas by the economic geography.Then we use the CCE method to make the empirical analysis.The result shows that the influence factors of the real estate price have much difference in the east,middle,west region of China.And same factor has different way of influence in different area.Especially,the level of credit has significant impact on the real estate price in the long and short term.Its regression coefficient in the long term decreases from east to west.In the second part of our article,we extracted common factors and loading coefficient from the residuals which contain cross-sectional dependence and then used the nonparametric estimating method with large data sets to find the turning points of multivariate time series.The results show that the cycles of the real estate market and macro-economy alternated previously.The dominating factor may originate from the changes of the macro-economy.Additionally,the international financial crisis may impact on domestic real estate price through exchange rate.And the regulatory policies are likely to result in regional difference in real estate price volatility.