Savings Rate,Consumption Policy And Economic Fluctuation In China

Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in the world,various countries have experienced structural imbalances in varying degrees.Many developed countries,such as the United States,are loans for consumption,and economic development relies heavily on borrowing;China's economic growth is mainly driven by state investment.However,with the development of economy,the drawbacks of increasing investment are gradually emerging.Excessive investment has led to serious overcapacity problems in many industries,such as steel,coal and electrolytic aluminum,which have resulted in an overproduction of production.Surplus products can not be solved only by domestic demand.They can only rely on a large amount of exports.The foreign exchange reserves accumulated by exports are loaned to the United States at very low interest rates to maintain their borrowing and consumption.With the global economic downturn,the growth of foreign demand has gradually declined,China's surplus products can not rely solely on external demand pull,but also rely on domestic demand pull.Our country implements the supply side structural reform,put forward "three to drop a",is to emphasize the removal of excess capacity,the adjustment of supply and demand mismatch,the supply of more high-end products,to meet consumer demand for high-end.And put forward the economic growth will be "Wenzhongqiujin",on the adjustment of economic structure in a more important position.Thus,stimulating domestic demand plays an important role in the steady growth of the economy.In this paper can be divided into labor consumption shocks in the RBC model,the Chinese economic fluctuation was simulated,through the study of technology and consumption in the double impact of impulse response and variance decomposition to each variable in the economy of consumption on economic growth and smoothing the economic cycle fluctuations play an important role.Through the study,we find that the RBC model introducing consumption shock can simulate the fluctuation of Chinese economy better.A policy shock test shows that technological shocks cancause greater volatility in output,while steady consumption can mitigate the volatility.Technological progress and stimulating domestic demand can further promote steady economic growth.The possible innovation of this paper specifically includes the following aspects:first,the standard RBC model only introduced this technology the impact of exogenous shocks,although able to explain economic fluctuations in the United States,but it is not a good explanation of China economic fluctuation,consumption will impact the introduction of the basic RBC model,analyzes the influence of economic Chinese consumption policy the volatility of the simulation results are found to be more reasonable.Second,the study of household consumption will focus on improving consumption rates and reducing savings,rather than on how much people live on.The drawbacks of excessive investment have been gradually highlighted,and the study of consumption policy helps us to solve the current imbalance in economic structure and is conducive to China's economic transformation.Through the data simulation,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,this paper discusses the positive influence of stimulating domestic demand on consumption policy.