Research On Real Estate Cycle Fluctuation And Driving Effect From The Perspective Of Financial Stability

As an important part of macro-economic sector,the real estate industry association with other industry is becoming more and more frequently,especially with the financial industry,a stable and effective financial system can provide a good environment for the development of real estate,so the study of driving effects of the real estate cycle by financial stability index,not only can help us to understand the effect of different financial index on the real estate,provide financial policy advice for the government,but also through the periodic fluctuation feature recognition,to predict the future trend of the real estate cycle,use counter cyclical strategy to suppress the fluctuation of negative effects,promote the steady development of real estate.Based on the study of the real estate cycle fluctuation causes and present situation,this essay selected annual data from 1991 to 2013,use MRS-GJR-GARCH model to recognize the real estate cycle of nearly 23 years and the cycle characteristics,and choose 24 original indexes from the external economic environment,inner economic environment,market and institution to measure the status of financial stability,structure financial stability index system.Then extraction of four financial stability index by the factor analysis method,established a VAR model to study financial stability index effect on fluctuation of the real estate market,at length,make a qualitative analysis about contribution rate of different financial stability index to real estate cycle based on identical cycle.Cycle identification results show that,there are a total of 8 thermal cycles and 9 cold periods of real estate cycle of our country between 1991 to 2013 years,cycle fluctuation is asymmetric,the thermal cycle duration is long and the fluctuation depth is greater than the cold period.The empirical research shows that: among four financial stability indexes,only the stability of the financial market index in the first lag period have a greater impact on commercial housing sales area growth rate,the remaining three indexes affected commercial housing sales area growth rate in the second lag period.Four financial stability index on the cycle of the contribution rate is not the same.This paper has 12 figures,13 tables and 58 references.