Epidemiological Analysis Of Wild Fungus Poisoning Incidents In Baoshan City From 2014 To 2017 And Research On Control Measures

In recent years,government departments have vigorously supported the development of edible wild mushrooms.Along with the growth in annual output value,wild mushrooms have become the main source of farmers' income and an important way to get rid of poverty.However,the cases of wild mushroom poisoning also occur frequently as their production increases.Baoshan is a high-risk area with wild mushroom poisoning.To reduce the occurrence of local wild mushroom poisoning,it is therefore critical to study the epidemiological characteristics of wild mushroom poisoning and predict the number of people poisoned by wild mushroom in the next year.The data on wild mushroom poisoning in Baoshan from 2014 to 2017 were collected.Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the data and determine the epidemiological characteristics and major factors related to the occurrence of wild mushroom poisoning.The application of time series analysis in predicting the number of people poisoned by wild mushroom was investigated.The predictive models were established and evaluated.The number of people poisoned by wild mushroom in the next year was predicted.The countermeasures targeted at wild mushroom poisoning were proposed to provide relevant departments with a scientific basis for developing prevention and control policies of wild mushroom poisoning.The results showed that there were 150 cases of wild mushroom poisoning in Baoshan from 2014 to 2017,in which a total of 521 people were poisoned and 8 of them died after poisoning(fatality rate: 1.54%).The cases of wild mushroom poisoning in the past 4 years presented noticeable fluctuations.The number of cases first rose and then fell before the final stabilization.The results of time distribution anal ysis indicated that wild mushroom poisoning mainly occurred in the period from June to September and most of the poisoning occurred in July.The results of circular distribution method revealed that the occurrence of wild mushroom poisoning had obvious seasonal peaks.The peak was from June 11 to August 26,and the peak day was July 19.The results of population distribution analysis indicated that the age group with the highest number of people poisoned by wild mushroom was 20-59 years old,accounting for 72.55% of the total number.People who died after wild mushroom poisoning were children(aged 7 years and below)and the elderly(aged over 50 years).According to the results of regional distribution analysis,the cases of wild mushroom poisoning in Shidian County were the highest in the five administrative regions of Baoshan,the cases of wild mushroom poisoning in Longling County were the least,and the number of deaths caused by wild mushroom poisoning in Tengchong City was the highest.The analysis of urban and rural distribution suggested that the cases of poisoning and the number of poisoned person in rural areas were significantly higher than those in urban areas,while the deaths caused by wild mushroom poisoning were all distributed in rural areas.By analyzing the place of poisoning,it was found that family was a high-risk place where wild mushroom poisoning occurred,accounting for 92.00% of the total cases.The simple seasonal model,the Holt-Winters additive model and the ARIMA model were established to predict the number of people poisoned by wild mushroom.In terms of peak period,the three models are all suitable for predicting the peak period of wild mushroom poisoning in Baoshan.In terms of the number of people poisoned by wild mushroom in the whole year,the ARIMA model has the smallest fitting error and the best fitting effect.The three models were used to predict the number of people poisoned by wild mushroom in Baoshan in 2018.The simple seasonal model predicted that the peak period of poisoning would be from June to August,and the number of poisoned person would be 122.9.The Holt-Winters additive model predicted that the peak period of poisoning would be from June to August,and the number of poisoned person would be 111.2.The ARIMA model predicted that the peak period of poisoning would be from June to September,and the number of poisoned person would be 118.9.To solve the problems in the prevention and control of wild mushroom poisoning,the following suggestions are proposed by conducting on-site visits and telephone interviews of relevant departments and personnel and performing epidemiological analysis of wild mushroom poisoning in Baoshan from 2014 to 2017.Specifically,to effectively prevent the occurrence of wild mushroom poisoning in Baoshan and improve the treatment rate of poisoned patients,it is necessary to: 1.establish a coordination organization and a multi-sectoral coordination mechanism;2.promulgate laws and regulations and establish a market access system;3.conduct emergency exercise and improve emergency response capabilities;4.strengthen supervision and reduce the blind spots of supervision;5.investigate the morphology of wild mushrooms and develop a map of wild mushrooms;6.conduct toxicology resear ch to improve the treatment rate.