Research On The Prediction Of Coal Seam Gas Outburst Danger Area Based On The Kriging Algorithm

Coal and gas outburst is a coal and rock dynamic disaster in underground production,which has seriously threatened the life safety of workers in the process of coal mining.Only effective and reasonable prediction of coal and gas outburst can ensure the normal development of the mining process.As a part of coal and gas outburst prediction,regional prediction is more controllable than other prediction methods in the prediction range.Nowadays,the method of index analysis is used to make regional prediction,but coal and gas outburst,a complex dynamic process,cannot be predicted by only one or a few indicators.Therefore,it is necessary to make a comprehensive analysis of the influence parameters to obtain a unified prediction.And in view of the problems of difficult management of coal mine gas and geological data and difficult prediction of various characteristics in underground space,it is necessary to develop a set of data management and prediction platform suitable for coal mine production units in time,which is becoming an urgent necessity for coal mine managers.Based on the coal and gas outburst mechanism and geostatistics theory,a coal mine in guizhou province is taken as the research object,GIS technology and kriging algorithm are used as the research tools to predict and analyze the coal seam gas outburst risk area.The research results and conclusions are as follows:(1)Through the analysis of mine characteristics,it is concluded that the main structure of mine is fault and the structural complexity is moderate.The regression trend line of absolute gas emission and coal seam depth is obtained by the method of source prediction.(2)By means of underground investigation and experimental analysis,the data of the research object is collected and the collection scheme of various parameters is developed.The mine coal wall of the 11208 working face,14 cross-hole and 111201 air return of be complementary were photographed.Gas content and gas pressure,porosity and specific surface area,adsorption constant,coal firmness coefficient and initial velocity of gas dispersion were analyzed.(3)Through the demand analysis of the actual problems to be solved in the current mine gas map,the design development route is obtained.VS2012 and.NET4.5.1 C# software were used to develop the mine gas geological platform of ArcGIS Engine 10.2.According to the general design roadmap,the MDB database is established and the basic functions,editing functions,analysis functions and drawing functions are developed for the software.(4)The influencing factors of coal and gas outburst were unified by matter-element analysis,and the missing data were filled by EM algorithm.In this study,exploratory spatial data analysis was carried out on the gas content data,and the differences between the Ordinary kriging method and the Universal kriging method in the gas content regional prediction were compared,and the coal and gas outburst risk prediction regions of the research object were obtained.