Research On The Evaluation Method Of Gas Storage Value Considering Uncertainty

With the rapid growth of natural gas consumption and imports in China,the value of gas storage as an important means of ensuring energy security and solving the demand for peak loading has become increasingly prominent.However,in China,the current situation of natural gas prices is under control,the valuation of the UGS is still in undervalued situation.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the value evaluation method of underground gas storage.This paper first summarizes the experience of UGSs in Europe and the United States,and then sums up the development of China's UGS and the existing problems.Then,through the applicability analysis of each valuation method,the discounted cash flow method is combined with the real option method.And then through the establishment and simulation of natural gas price model,using the financial process to analyze,combined with the improved B-S option model.And finally gets the real option valuation with and without financing.Through the study,the cash flow discount model and the real option model can be combined and evaluate the value of the UGS better.At the same time,the study proves that the appropriate proportion of financing can improve the value of gas storage for enterprises in the construction of gas UGS process and provides a theoretical basis for financing.