Research On The Price Transmission Mechanism Of Oil And Financial Markets

As an industrial blood,petroleum is an indispensable energy material in modern production and life.The supply of petroleum affects the country's energy security.Although the consumption of renewable resources(such as solar energy),hydropower,nuclear energy,and natural gas has increased year by year in recent years,according to the "2017 BP World Energy Statistical Yearbook",petroleum is still the largest proportion of primary energy consumption.In recent years,along with a series of global economic and political events such as the Asian financial crisis,the Iraq war,and the Arab Spring event,oil prices have fluctuate frequently.As the world's second largest oil consumer and economy,China's foreign dependence on oil is as high as 67.4%.The fluctuation of oil prices affects the development of China's economy.Studying oil price fluctuations is of great significance to China's economic development.The fluctuation of oil prices is not only affected by factors such as oil supply and demand and political events,At the same time,with the continuous enhancement of the nature of petroleum finance,the impact of financial markets on oil prices has also increased.Domestic and foreign scholars have become increasingly popular with the research on the price transmission mechanism of oil and financial markets.However,the research on oil prices and financial markets by domestic and foreign scholars is mostly limited to the study of the relationship between oil prices and the stock market,there are less systematic research on oil prices and other financial markets.This paper takes China as the background Based on a systematic analysis of the price transmission mechanism of relevant factors in oil and financial markets,an oil price transmission index system was constructed,and a vector autoregressive model was used to empirically investigate the price transmission mechanism of oil prices and financial markets.Empirical analysis shows:First,China's oil price and the US dollar exchange rate are Granger causality,there are Obvious impact from oil price to exchange rate;Second,China's oil prices are the single-direction Granger cause of interest rates,oil prices have the same impact on interest rates,and thirdly,although the stock price is highly impacted by oil prices,they are not mutually exclusive Granger causality.The "barometer" of China's securities market is not obvious.Finally,based on the empirical analysis results,combined with the development status of China's oil market and financial market,the author proposes policy recommendations from various dimensions such as financial market management,oil price pricing,and oil finance development,with a view to reforming the national oil pricing,financial markets,and petroleum The development and improvement of financial integration provide useful reference.