The Evaluation Of The Climatic Suitability Of Cherries In Shaanxi Province And The Research On The Adaptation Behavior Of Growers To Climate Change

Cherry belongs to the stone fruit tree and is one of the earliest mature fruit trees in the northern deciduous fruit trees.It is divided into large cherries and small cherries,small cherries mainly refer to Chinese sour cherries,and large cherries are also known as sweet cherries.It is rich in nutrition and enjoys the reputation of "the first branch of spring fruit".Although cherries are delicious,cherry trees are difficult to grow.Different temperature,sunlight and water conditions will lead to differences in cherry properties,fruit size and material content at different stages.Cherries like temperature,light,humidity and fertility.Cherry is prone to meteorological disasters such as low temperature,drought and continuous rain during flowering,young fruit hard nucleus and fruit ripening.Therefore,it is necessary to evaluate and analyze the climatic conditions and suitability of cherry planting.The climatic suitability of cherry planting in different regions was calculated based on the meteorological data of 35 meteorological stations in shaanxi province for 15 years.Firstly,the meteorological conditions of cherry growth were analyzed,and then the suitability evaluation index is determined.Grey correlation method is used to calculate the suitability of each region based on the weight of each index.This paper verifies the applicability of planned behavior theory in cherry growers' adaptation to climate change and meteorological disasters based on the theory of planned behavior and structural equation model.The results are as follows:(1)The interannual dynamic characteristics of meteorological elements such as temperature,precipitation and sunshine in northern Shaanxi,Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi from 2002 to 2016 are as follows:The annual average temperatures in northern Shaanxi,Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi gradually increase from north to south.The annual average precipitation in Shaanxi Province has an increasing spatial distribution from northern Shaanxi,central Shaanxi,and southern Shaanxi.The values of sunshine in Shaanxi Province are arranged from large to small in northern Shaanxi,central Shaanxi and southern Shaanxi.The accumulated temperature of?10? activity in Shaanxi Province showed a gradually increasing spatial distribution from north to south.(2)Factors affecting the growth and development of cherries include temperature,precipitation,light,accumulated temperature,soil,and so on.The meteorological disasters that are easy to occur in the growth of cherries mainly include low-temperature and heavy rain during flowering,drought during hard-core period of young fruit and continuous rain during maturity.On the basis of summarizing the previous research results,this paper constructs the evaluation index system of cherry climate suitability in Shaanxi Province.The evaluation indicators include annual average temperature,annual precipitation,extreme minimum temperature,sunshine hours,?10? activity accumulated temperature,and comprehensive classification criteria for various indicators,summarizing the appropriate,sub-suitable and unsuitable range limits of each cherry indicator.(3)Based on the range of screening indicators for cherry planting suitability in Shaanxi Province,the spatial interpolation method of GIS was used to evaluate the suitability of single factor.The results of single factor evaluation showed that the average annual temperature of Longxian in Baoji City,Yongshou in Xianyang City,Liuba in Hanzhong City,Suide and Yan'an in Yulin City was basically 10?12?,which was suitable range.Other areas belonged to Second suitable range.The average annual precipitation of Changwu in Tongchuan,Wugong in Xianyang,Ningqiang and Zhenba in Hanzhong are suitable;The average annual precipitation of Fengxiang,Longxian and Taibai in Baoji,Hancheng in Weinan,Qindu and Wugong in Xianyang are sub-optimal ranges;other areas are unsuitable.The extreme minimum temperature in Guanzhong and most of southern Shaanxi is greater than or equal to-20?,which is suitable;Jingbian,Shenmu,Suide and Wuqi are sub-optimal ranges;Dingbian,Hengshan and Yulin are unsuitable.The sunshine hours of Hengshan,Jingbian,Shenmu,Suide and Yulin are between 2600 and 2800h,which is suitable range;most of Tongchuan,Baoji and Weinan are suitable for sunshine.The accumulated temperature values of?10?in most areas of Tongchuan,Baoji,Weinan and Hanzhong are suitable ranges;The accumulated temperature of?10?C in northern Shaanxi is basically the sub-optimal range.(4)The coefficient of variation was used to calculate the weight of the index,and the gray correlation analysis method was used to evaluate the climate suitability of cherry in Shaanxi Province.The climate suitability of cherry planting in southern Shaanxi was evaluated by using Mianxian County as a reference sequence.The results showed that the suitability of most areas in Hanzhong was larger,and the suitability of each site in Ankang City and Shangluo City was smaller than that of Hanzhong.The climatic suitability of cherry planting in Guanzhong area and northern Shaanxi was calculated using Tongchuan area as a reference sequence.In addition to the small suitability of Taibai and Huashan in Guanzhong area,the climatic suitability of cherries in most of Baoji and Weinan is large,which is suitable for growing cherries.The suitability value of each area in Yan'an City of northern Shaanxi is obviously greater than the suitability value of all parts of Yulin City.The climatic suitability values of cherry plantations in Shaanxi Province were calculated by using the mean values of meteorological data in Hanzhong,Mianxian and Tongchuan as reference sequences.The suitable planting areas for cherries were mainly concentrated in Guanzhong,southern Shaanxi and southern Shaanxi.(5)This paper investigates the adaptation behavior of cherry growers on climate change.The results show that the gender,age,education level,agricultural income level,area and time of cherry planting have an impact on the scores of farmers' climate change adaptation intentions.The model results show that the theory of planned behavior provides a good theoretical basis for explaining the climate change adaptation intention and adaptation behavior of cherry growers.As a result,the cherry cultivator's perceptual behavior control has less influence on the adaptive behavior,and the other hypothesis about the climate change adaptation behavior of the growers is established.