The Relationship Between Security Market Price And Commercial Bank Lending Decisions

with the development of capital market,asset price fluctuate frequently.Modern financial theory has recognized the relationship between real economy and the asset price volatility.At the same time,not only the United States but also the world's capital markets and the real economy suffer from the last economic crisis.In recent years,Chinese stock and real-estate market have fluctuated violently with expansion of the bank lending.Therefore,the study on the correlation between the stock price and bank credit has great theoretical and practical significance on the sound and healthy development of China's financial system.On the basis of theory analysis of bank credit and asset prices,this paper take the monthly data of credit scale(short-term and medium – and long-term bank credit),prices,interest rate,industrial added value to establish the four variables VAR and Rolling-VAR model from 2005 to 2017.Through researching on the correlation between stock price and bank credit,we get several conclusions.From the short-term bank credit delivery,stock prices have a certain effect on the short-term credit delivery of bank which is positive.In the long run,the impact has increased.From the medium – and long-term bank credit availability,the stock price has positively affected the medium – and long-term credit delivery of bank.In the meantime,the stock price has greater effect on the medium – and long-term credit delivery of bank than the short-term credit delivery of bank.The underlying trend of stock price impact on bank credit delivery in different periods is divided into four periods: before2013,from 2013-2014,from 2014-2015 and after 2015.Before 2013,the stock price volatility contributed to both short-term and medium-and long-term bank credit delivery,but the contribution was limited.Then from 2013-2014,stock price volatility made little contribution to short-term credit delivery,but large contribution to medium-and long-term credit delivery.From 2014 to 2015,the stock price has not only contributed significantly to the short-term credit delivery,but also the mediumand long-term credit delivery.From the point of view of the average contribution,when the stock market is prosperous,the stock price has a significant contribution to the medium and long term and short term credit.However,when the stock market is depressed,the contribution of the stock price to the short-term credit is not as good as the medium and long term credit.This is the same as the actual life observation.When the stock market is depressed,the value investors tend to invest into stock market through the pledge of securities and real estate.When the stock market boom,the speculators tend to borrow short-term loans to invest into the stock market and expect to gain short-term returns.At this time,value investors and investment have a common effect on the stock market.Finally,this article puts forward several policy suggestions: first of all,strengthen bank credit management and risk control.For bank credit,we should pay close attention to its capital flow,avoid illegal flow into capital market or other financial markets.Secondly,establish a bank risk early warning system,establish a multi-dimensional risk warning system,and stock price.Relation between the price of lattice,real estate and so on,grasp the risk transfer of capital market in time;thirdly,optimize the structure of the capital market,establish a multi-level capital market,guide the capital into the corresponding market according to the risk preference,avoid the capital pile up,cause a single capital market bubble,and fourth,perfect the macro and the micro financial supervision system.A prudent supervision system is needed to further comprehensively and effectively supervise China's financial system,such as the co supervision of banking and insurance industry.