Since our country has put forward the strategy of "going out",especially since the "The Belt and Road" strategy practice,China's foreign direct investment(hereinafter referred to as OFDI)began to grow rapidly,and China's investment level is rising day by day,and the scope of investment and the industrial structure of investment show a trend of diversification.In this context,the academic attention gradually shifted from foreign direct investment to OFDI,and focused on the impact of OFDI on the industrial structure of the home country.At the same time,as a pillar industry of our country,the manufacturing industry is faced with the dilemma of transformation.The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of OFDI on the upgrading of China's manufacturing industry structure.On the basis of existing research,this paper summarizes the general mechanism of OFDI's impact on the upgrading of manufacturing structure from the aspects of industry transfer effect,industry association effect and reverse technology spillover effect.Then,using the Chenery standard structural model for reference,this paper makes an empirical analysis from two aspects: inter industry upgrading and industrial upgrading in manufacturing industry.In this section,the time series data of the OFDI investment stock of China's 30 provinces in 2003-2014 are used for regression and study the impact of manufacturing OFDI in different provinces of China on the inter structure upgrading and intra structural upgrading of manufacturing industry is studied.The empirical results show that OFDI has significant positive effect on China manufacturing intra industry structure upgrade,and have different effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure of manufacturing industry in different economic development provinces OFDI.Then,according to the different ways of investment and investment in the host country economic development level is different,the regression using time series data from 2003 to 2013 Chinese investment of 15 typical developed countries and 15 developing countries typical horizontal OFDI and vertical OFDI stock,on different host and different ways of OFDI influence on manufacturing industry structure upgrading Chinese.The empirical results show that the developed countries to the level of OFDI of Chinese manufacturing inter industrial upgrading has a negative significant effect,and to the developed countries of the vertical type OFDI has a positive significant effect on China manufacturing industry between upgrading;to developing level of OFDI has a positive effect on China manufacturing industrial upgrading,and to developing vertical OFDI of China manufacturing inter industrial upgrading has a negative significant effect.Finally,combined with theoretical analysis,status analysis and empirical analysis,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to give full play to the impact of OFDI on the upgrading of China's manufacturing structure and solve the overcapacity problems in manufacturing industry.And This paper argues that when investing in developed countries,China's manufacturing sector should adopt a vertical OFDI approach,which will soon keep China's technology R&D center at home.The non-core components of production links,processing,assembly and other aspects of the layout to the developed countries,so as to learn advanced technology in developed countries,and will not lead to domestic "industry hollowing out".Moreover,When investing in developing countries,China's manufacturing sector should adopt a horizontal OFDI approach,shifting the country's surplus capacity to developing countries.In the foreign market production,operation and sale,and even research and development,this will not only solve the problem of domestic overcapacity,but also make use of lower production factors in developing countries,saving costs. |