| CPI is a relative indicator reflecting the changes in the prices of household goods and is an important decision-making indicator of national macroeconomic regulation and control,and a reference indicator for national economic accounting.As an important macroeconomic indicator,CPI is used to measure the changes in the price level of household goods and services generally purchased by households.Its authenticity and accuracy have always been of concern to all groups in society.However,the inconsistency between the officially announced CPI indicators and the actual feelings of Chinese residents on price fluctuations makes the authenticity and accuracy of CPI questioned by academic circles and residents.It is believed that China's CPI does not accurately reflect the changes in the prices of residents' living goods.The situation,that is,there is a deviation in the CPI indicator.Therefore,research on CPI bias has become an issue that the academic community is constantly exploring.At present,the academic community generally believes that the factors affecting the CPI bias mainly include the following five aspects:Primary summary deviation,upper substitution bias,deviation caused by product quality change,new product deviation and sales point substitution deviation.The upper substitution bias is derived from the bias caused by the different choices of the classification price index summary model.At present,the Laspeyres index model is widely used in countries all over the world,but the problem of the model's relatively lagging weight update period has been questioned by academics and statistical practitioners.Therefore,shortening the CPI weight update cycle in countries around the world has become a trend.In theory,as the weight update cycle continues to shrink,using the Paasche index to compile CPI becomes a trend.At the same time,with the in-depth study of the "ideal index" represented by the Fisher index,the use of the "ideal index" model to compile CPI has become an important issue that the academic community is trying to explore.This paper mainly focuses on the CPI deviation problem caused by the upper substitution bias.Starting from the CPI measurement model,using the relevant data published by the National Bureau of Statistics,the CPI measurement model deviation caused by the different selection of the measurement model in the process of CPI preparation in China is analyzed and analyzed.Provide suggestions for the development and improvement of China's CPI preparation.Based on the literature results of domestic and international price indices,based on the CPI compilation theory in China,the main research contents of China's CPI measurement model deviation are as follows:(1)Calculate the CPI report option weight.Using the quarterly data of the per capita consumption expenditure of residents announced by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2016,the CPI item reporting option weight is calculated;(2)Prepare a quarterly price index.Using the monthly data of the 2016-2018 Residents Consumption Index as sample data,the sample data is used to compile a quarterly price index to ensure consistency in time analysis.(3)Compile the Paisley Index and the Fisher Index.The Paasche index was recombined using the sample data and the calculated report options,and the Fisher index was calculated using the Laspeyres index.(4)Comparative analysis of the samples of the Laspeyres index,the Paasche index and the Fisher index deviation,and compared with the official Laspeyres index,to measure the deviation between different measurement models.(5)Deviation measure.The deviation measure of each sample index and the official Laspeyres index was used to compare and analyze the magnitude of CPI deviation generated by different assembly models.The empirical results show that:(1)According to the sample data,using different econometric models to measure CPI,the results show that the Laspeyres index is the largest,the Paasche index is the smallest,and the Fisher index is in the middle.The empirical results have a mathematical relationship with the three model formulas.consistency;(2)From the sample measurement values,the index analysis of the three compilation models found that the deviation between the Laspeyres index and the Paasche index was the most significant,and the deviation between the Fisher index and the other two indexes was not much different;Nationally,the deviation between the Laspeyres index and the Paasche index is 0.0484%,while the deviation between the Laspeyres index and the Fisher index and the deviation between the Paasche and the Fisher index are almost the same,both being 0.0242%.The model deviation characteristics are consistent with the national scope;(3)A comparative analysis of the sample Laspeyres index and the official Laspeyres index found that the sample Laspeyres index was significantly greater than the official Laspeyres index.On a national scale,the deviation between the two reached 0.0407%,the urban deviation reached 0.0296%,and the rural deviation reached 0.516%;(4)From a national perspective,the comparison between the Paasche index and the Fisher index and the official Laspeyres index shows that the deviation between the official Laspeyres index and the Paasche index is 0.0396%,the deviation from the Fisher index is 0.0318%,and the official Laspeyres index is overall.Both are smaller than the sample Paasche index and the sample Fisher index.The innovations of this paper are as follows: First,for the first time,using the data of household consumption expenditures published by the National Bureau of Statistics in the new cycle,the CPI items are reported to be heavy.Second,using the relevant sample data to measure the Paasche index and compile the Fisher index,which is a perfection of the traditional CPI system.Thirdly,starting with the econometric model,this paper studies the deviation of CPI caused by choosing different econometric models,and analyses the deviation between Laspeyres index,Paasche index and Fisher index,so as to provide suggestions for the improvement of CPI compilation. |
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