| Our understanding of the determinants of corporate debt maturity structure is well established in terms of traditional finance theory.The majority of former research assumes all market participants are rational person,making decisions that best serve their own interests based on utility maximization.However,researches in psychology suggest that people are not totally rational,they display biases in both cognitive and emotional.Based on this theory,research in behavioral corporate finance tries to explain corporation's anomalies based on the irrational investors approach and irrational managers approach.Right now,scholars at home and abroad have achieved an agreement in the relationship between managerial overconfidence and both corporate investment decisions and M&A decisions.However,there still exists controversy in how overconfident CEOs influence corporate debt maturity structure.Based on the researches of overconfidence and the corporate debt maturity,this paper establishes a two-stage binary tree model to explain the impact of differentiated overconfidence on the corporate debt maturity.To test the validity of the conclusion,we choose 2012-2016 as the sample period,based on the forecast error of A-share listed companies,using both continuous and binary variable to characterize the level of managerial overconfidence,combined with descriptive analysis 、 T-test for independent samples 、 regression analysis to test the relationship between differentiated overconfidence and the corporate debt maturity.We further consider the impact of the nature of the property right and liquidity risk on this relationship.Based on the above research,we draw three conclusions: First,CEOs with different level of overconfident prefer different debt maturity,for those who are weak overconfident,they prefer short-term debt,while those who are strong overconfident prefer long-term debt;Second,in state-owned enterprises,the relationship between managerial overconfidence and corporate debt maturity is surrendered.Third,when the corporate is facing high liquidity risk,the weak overconfident CEO's obsession with short-term debt is surrendered as well. |
