Studying On The Default Risk Of China's Shadow Banking

In recent years,China's economy has been developing continuously,and its innovation capability has been increasing.In order to obtain a large amount of funds,the enterprises stimulated the rapid expansion of shadow banking,complicated product structure,and sharply increased risks,which had a great impact on the stability of the economy and finance.Currently,there are often mismatches in term of money and “one-to-many ”situations in shadow banking,shadow banking liabilities are mostly short-term,while assets are mostly in the medium and long term,maturity mismatches between assets and liabilities,and shadow banking are highly leveraged,low-transparency,and regulated.insufficient factors and other factors,coupled with the lack of risk management capabilities of financial institutions,will lead to the fracture of the capital chain and can easily induce default risk.So this article studies on the default risk of shadow banking.Firstly,this article introduces the concept of default risk of shadow banking briefly,analyzes the change in scale,and focuses on the development status of default risk.Secondly,we summarized the causes and impacts of default risk and concluded that low transparency,complicated structure,high leverage,maturity mismatch,high correlation,and lack of regulatory constraints are the main reasons of default risk,which is the transmission of monetary policy.Even economic and financial stability have had a great impact.Then,analyzing the default risk of shadow banking.In the empirical part,by using the MES and SRISK models,we measure the marginal risk contribution rankings of China's listed shadow banks and the funding gaps of each listed shadow bank.The results show that the overall trend of the two values of MES and SRISK is the same.During the financial crisis and between 2015 and 2016,these two values were relatively high and were in line with the actual situation.From the ranking of MES values,it is found that China's large commercial banks are in the final position.This is because large commercial banks are highly supported by the government,strict supervision,and high loan thresholds,and have strong ability to resist risks.In the event of systemic risk,the absence of unit capital contributes less to default risk and theprobability of marginal default is smaller.From the SRISK analysis,it was found that,with the exception of commercial banks,the SRISK value of other types of shadow banking institutions is approximately 0,indicating that commercial banks are the main bearers of default losses of shadow banking institutions.This also shows that in the event of a financial crisis,the larger the institution,the greater the shortage of capital.Finally,from the perspectives of scale and risk resilience,we propose to promote the interest rate liberalization,improve the information disclosure system,strengthen macro-prudential supervision,strictly control the capital adequacy and leverage ratio,and strengthen the personnel education level of the supervision agencies.Preventing and controlling shadow bank default risk.