Research On Investment Strategy Of Duopoly Multinational Enterprises With Option Game

Option game theory has become a research hotspot due to the uncertainty,irreversibility and competition in recent years,it is widely applied in land and natural resources value and development decision-making,design of acquisition mode,evaluation of enterprise value in the form of acquisition,enterprise investment decision,corporate capital structure,R&D investment decision,high-tech projects all aspects of the assessment,tax and other fields,that become a scientific and effective decision making tool.Multinational companies which faced by multinational investment environment also has the uncertainty,irreversibility and competitive,so the option game theory to the investment decision-making problem of multinational companies plays an important role not only in the theory but also in the application research.The main results of this paper are as follows:This paper mainly studied the exchange rate uncertainty set symmetrical duopoly investment strategy problem in a multinational company.First of all,it is to solve the leader,followers and monopoly of value functions and optimal investment threshold,at the same time analyses the equilibrium strategies.Secondly,it is studied the leader,followers,and monopoly of value functions and optimal investment threshold under the non-zero operating costs,and analyzed the effect of operating costs on the investment income and the critical value.Finally,it is feasible to study the collusion equilibrium under the unrestrained but the collusion is not perfect Nash equilibrium.Therefore,the multinational companies will rationally choose the investment optimal exercise of the probability to obtain the leading benefit under the mixed strategy.This paper studies the investment decision problems of the double asymmetric double oligarch transnational enterprises.Firstly,studied symmetric duopoly multinational enterprise optimal investment timing and value based on the exchange rate uncertainty and price uncertainty without change in market,it is concluded that the leader,followers and investing altogether the value of the investment function and optimal investment timing through?Itolemma and bellman equation.At the same time,it is studied the optimal investment opportunity and value function of symmetrical duopoly multinational enterprises.Secondly,it is studied the change in market costs under asymmetric duopoly multinational companies the optimal investment timing and value function,and carried on the equilibrium analysis,it is concluded that the existence of the value of the first divided into equilibrium and sequential equilibrium area,simultaneous equilibrium and non equilibrium area.Finally,a numerical simulation the influence of mutation of investment threshold and market equilibri um,it is concluded that:(1)The multinational country has a larger policy exchange rate fluctuations,riots,etc,multinational companies tend to delay investment;(2)The greater possibility of policies,exchange rate fluctuations and riots in the countries where the transnational corporations are located,the more the multinational enterprises tend to delay investment;(3)The range of policies,exchange rates and riots of multinational companies is positively correlated with the range of investment equilibrium,which is negatively correlated with the range of preemptive equilibrium and sequential equilibrium;(4)The probability of national policies,exchange rates and riots of multinational companies is positively correlated with the range of investment equilibrium,which is negatively correlated with the interval of preemptive equilibrium and sequential equilibrium.