The Research Of The Trend And Structure Of Inflation In China Based On UCSVO Model

The level of inflation is an important indicator which reflects economic problems of a country.All along,scholars at home and abroad are focused in the research on the trend of inflation.At first,This article summarizes the research literature about the trend of inflation in foreign countries,Next,in the light of the actual conditions in our country,we draw lessons from the international unobserved component models(UCSVO,MUCSVO)that contain stochastic volatility and outlier adjustment to analyze the inflation in our country,With a view to enriching the deficiencies of China's inflation research and providing reference for policy makers.The results show that:(1)There is no outlier in China's inflation sequence;(2)Since 2005,the trend of inflation in China has been stable,with fluctuations of 1 to 2years,and the volatility is basically controlled between 2% and 4%,which is relatively stable,and the trend of total inflation shows a good momentum in the future.(3)In each sub-inflation,the value of food inflation is larger and there will be a downward trend in the future.(4)The level of service inflation will rise in the future.In particular,the trend of health care inflation may continue to rise in the future in the context of medical reform.The trend of inflation and cyclical fluctuations in housing,household equipment,and services are greater than those of other categories,ranging from 5% to 10%,and should be valued by the relevant authorities.Overall,although the total inflation level is relatively moderate,the sub-inflation level is not satisfactory.In the context of the upgrading of the consumption structure,the government should give consideration to the coordinated development of all aspects.