Interregional Difference Of Time Preference:Distribution Characteristics And Influence Factors

Time preference plays a fundamental role in many economic theories and social time preference which is composed of all the individuals' willing is of great significance for the rational allocation of resources and sustainable development.The existing domestic researches mainly focus on the determination of social discount rate nationally,and the empirical study on influence factors and interregional difference analysis need refinement.The calculation and comparison of social discount rate in 31 provinces and municipalities in China in recent 15 years and the overall and regional empirical study on its influence factors not only provide theory basis for the adoption of discriminating social discount rate in China and data references for the determination of social discount rate,but also come up with a new train of thought to control social discount rate pointedly.The social discount rate we calculate are higher than expected.The difference analysis of SRTP,SOC and SRTP-SOC indicates that the average SRTP in China is basically stable,but the average SOC has been falling roughly,which therefore leads to a convergence of them over time;The average SRTP in most areas in last 15 years are lower than the average SOC and the regional difference of SRTP and SRTP-SOC are smaller than SOC.The interregional difference analysis of social discount rate shows that the average SOC and SRTP-SOC in eastern regions are the highest,both of which are the lowest in western regions though.In comparison,there's nothing special in the geographical distribution of SRTP.The overall and regional empirical study on influence factors tells that revenue growth has a negative effect on social discount rate both in the long term and short term,while marginal utility elasticity,consumption increase rate and market interest rate have a positive effect both in the long term and short term.However,the positive influence mortality shows to social discount rate in the long term is not obvious in the short term;Compared with eastern and central regions,social discount rate in western regions is more sensitive to the fluctuation of consumption and changes in capital markets and the equilibrium level of social discount rate in eastern regions has nothing to do with income and market interest rate in the long term.