The Dynamic Effect Of China's Financial Stress And Macreoeconomy

Under the conditions of an open,contemporary market economy,the financial pressures caused by advanced economies have affected the stability of China's financial system.It is urgent for China's financial system to assess the future financial risks in a timely,accurate and predictable manner and to the economy of China.Impact.In this regard,the paper constructs China's financial pressure index through the dynamic factor model by selecting eight sub-indicators of four markets that affect financial pressure,and uses MS-AR to identify financial stress periods.The Bayesian method was integrated into the asymmetric Markov model.Based on this model,three macroeconomic indicators including the growth rate of industrial added value,consumer price index,and the growth rate of real estate bank loans were selected to consider China's macro economy.The Dynamic Relationship between China's Financial Pressure Index and Its Composition Based on the State-space Model.The study found that the rapid growth phase of China's financial pressure is relatively concentrated and there is a certain correlation with international financial events.This shows that the internationalization of global finance has begun to take shape,and the financial crisis triggered by one country can quickly be transmitted to other countries.No one can be independent;Second,the high-risk areas of the economic and financial system are relatively concentrated.In addition,the pulsed results of the MS-VAR model indicate that China's financial risks will not disappear in the short-term,with a relatively large inertia,and there will be a certain impact on the macro economy.The time lag.Overall,the economic and financial system during the 12 th Five-Year Plan period is located in a low-risk period.In the long run,China's financial system has a relatively strong risk-releasing ability and can effectively resolve financial risks.The study of the dynamic characteristics of financial pressure and macroeconomics in this article will help improve the regulatory system and establish a more open financial market,which has significant theoretical and practical significance for the further development of the real economy.