| From 2005 to 2015,the amount of China's broad money supply(M2)increased from 29.8755 trillion yuan to 122.8375 trillion yuan.The growth rate was 311.16 percent.So much of the money supply goes to commodity markets,real estate and equity markets.However,China's inflation rate has remained at around 2%,so much of the remaining money is likely to go to the real estate market and the stock market.Since 1998,China's real estate prices have been in a state of rapid growth.Facing the rapid growth of real estate price,people generally believe that the current surge in house prices is beyond the people's purchasing power,so "difficult to buy a house" has become an urgent problem to be solved.At the same time,there is a difference in the development of regional real estate market due to the difference of economic development level in different regions of China.The purpose of this paper is to measure the relationship between the money supply and the housing price from the national and regional perspectives.First,explore the effects of M2 and QM on housing price;By means of the empirical method of impulse response function and variance decomposition,the paper explores the different influence of money supply on the housing price in eastern,central,western and northeastern China.According to the conclusion of the empirical research,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy Suggestions to provide reference for the healthy development of the real estate market.In the first chapter,firstly introduces the background and significance of the paper;Secondly summarizes the studies from scholars at home and abroad;Finally introduces the research methods in this paper.The second chapter analyzes the current situation of money supply in China through different data and chart analysis,and tries to analyze the reasons for the rapid increase of money supply.The third chapter describes the development of real estate in China and the development of real estate market in different regions.The fourth chapter analyzes the transmission mechanism of money supply on housing price from the theoretical perspective.The fifth chapter,based on the current situation and theory,selects the monthly data of broad money supply(M2),quasi-currency(QM)and baicheng price index from June 2010 to November 2016.Through unit root test,cointegration test and granger causality test to analyze.The analysis results is that China's broad money supply(M2)and quasi-currency(QM)has positive relationship with real estate prices.Both M2 and QM are granger reasons for real estate prices.The Chapter vi selects the monthly data of broad money supply(M2),eastern house prices(HP1),midland house prices(HP2),west house prices(HP3)and northeast house prices(HP4)from January 2006 to December 2016.Through the analysis method of impulse response and variance decomposition,The impact of money supply on eastern house prices(HP1),midland house prices(HP2),west house prices(HP3)and northeast house prices(HP4)is heterogeneous.The last chapter,from the national and regional perspectives,this paper puts forward relevant policy Suggestions for China's monetary policy. |
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