Exploration Of Catastrophic Loss Sharing Model

Disasters have constantly appeared in the long river of historical development along with the emergence of human civilization.Today,despite the rapid development of the global economy,disasters cannot be avoided.Especially after entering the 21 st century,various types of disasters in various parts of the world have emerged in an endless stream.The frequency of disasters has increased.The whole world has been moved to a vibration mode.This is a "catastrophic era."China has a vast territory.Since the Tangshan earthquake in 1976,there have been countless natural disasters.Thousands of people have forever lost their relatives or even their hometowns in the face of disasters.Therefore,in the current situation,it is particularly important to build a strong catastrophe risk sharing model.In contrast,the current status of disaster management in China,the relevant system is still in the development stage or even in its infancy,and it is still unable to give a powerful help to the affected people and it is difficult to play the due guarantee role.Looking at the world,some countries already have a relatively complete disaster management system and have played an important role in responding to some major disasters.These successful experiences have important implications for China.This paper takes earthquake risk loss sharing as the research object,uses the historical data of China's earthquake magnitude(1900-2017)to replace the incomplete data of seismic loss data,and adopts the Monte Carlo simulation method to fit the data to a negative binomial distribution and then use annual magnitudes of the sums plotted to plot the surpassing probability curves of the seismic risk losses.Finally,based on this surpassing probability curve,the ratio of risk losses of each subject under different risk tolerances is designed.The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the current catastrophic loss sharing model in China and draw the conclusions of the current catastrophic sharing model in China.Then Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the catastrophic risk,and then design a catastrophic loss model in line with our country's current based on the proportion of catastrophic risk losses in the national conditions,and relying on catastrophic funds to run the model,the sharing of the main catastrophic events is an organic combination of catastrophic events to build a more secure safety net and share catastrophic losses.The main content of this article is divided into five chapters.The first chapter begins with the background of the topic and the significance of the research.It reviews and sorts out relevant literature on the catastrophic risk sharing model,and proposes the research method and framework of this paper.The second chapter elaborates the related concepts and characteristics of catastrophic risk firstly,then analyzes the related theories of the five participants involved in catastrophic risk sharing,and finally introduces the theoretical basis of economics involved in this paper.The third chapter analyzes the current status of catastrophe risk sharing in China at present,and introduces the Wen Chuan earthquake disaster relief operation model.Section II analyzes the deficiencies and existing problems of catastrophic risk sharing in China and believes that China should establish it as soon as possible.A set of multi-agent organically combined catastrophic risk sharing models.The fourth chapter uses Monte Carlo simulation method and Python language programming to calculate the proportion of catastrophe risk sharing in accordance with China's national conditions by fitting the frequency of earthquakes with magnitudes above 1900 to 2017.In earthquakes above the 5th level,If the economic losses caused by the earthquake are caused,then the charity will bear 4% of the losses,the reinsurers will bear 12%,the insurance companies will bear 18%,and the government as the ultimate bearer of risks will share 66% of the economic losses;in the catastrophe funds Under the organization,the transfer of funds from the sharing agencies was coordinated and the catastrophic event was dealt with more efficiently.Chapter 5 introduces the model of catastrophic risk sharing in foreign countries,and proposes several suggestions for the exploration of China's earthquake catastrophic risk sharing model.Believes that the most urgent problem to be solved in China is to improve the legislation and supervision of catastrophic insurance and establish comprehensiveness.The catastrophic fund,to improve the reinsurance system,should gradually promote the establishment of the model at the current stage and achieve gradual and orderly action.