The Correlation Study On Cash Flow Of High-value Payment System And GDP、CPI

This paper investigates the correlation cash flow changes of People's Bank of China(PBS)in Hunan province and economic index CPI and GDP in Hunan province.This paper is divided into four chapters.In chapter l,we mainly introduce the background,significance of this study and then introduce the content and innovation for the research.In chapter 2,the theoretical foundation of this paper is Johansen test.By using these theories,we judge the cointegration relationship between nonstationary time series.The third chapter is divided into two parts.In part l,we research the co-integration relationship between outflows.inflows of High-value payment system and GDP in 2008 to 2015 years in Hunan.With the ADF test,we find that these time series fo quarterly GDP、outflows and inflows are integrated of orderl and reach a standardization co-integration equation.In part 2,we use 1stOpt software to establish the regression function of CPI、outflows and inflows.Finally,the CPI value of the first quarter of 2016 was predicted as 101.9037 by regression function.By the National Bureau of Statistics,we announce that the actual value of CPI is 101.8 and the relative error of CPI 0.10%.The results show that the regression model is appropriate.