Earnings Risk Analysis Of Yuebao

The in-depth development of Internet technology and the wide application of the Internet have greatly influenced the traditional financial model and raised the tide of the development of Internet currency funds closely linked to the Internet.The openness and transparency of the Internet makes information more convenient,reduces the asymmetry of information and reduces the transaction cost.However,as a financial system innovation,the Internet financial markets there are many immature,such as:industry to prevent poor,investors lack of financial knowledge,such as irrational,make the path of financial innovation is full of hidden dangers.How to correctly understand the risks hidden by yuebao Internet money fund and carry out effective risk prevention inference is the main problem in this paper.Research first treasure from celestica balance monetary fund property,the main framework,capital flow and briefly illustrate rapid development,and carries on the related concepts(third-party payment,currency funds),relevant theories(risk management theory,portfolio theory)briefly.Secondly,analyze the related income risk of yuebao Internet money fund,and analyze it from both industry and investors respectively.From the aspects of industry,is facing a competitive lead to liquidity risk,to honour to redeem the liquidity risks of operation,the"long tail"caused by market risk,and affected by interest rates lead to the earnings volatility risk;In terms of investors,there are technical loopholes and credit unwarranties resulting in information security and capital risks.In view of this,this paper introduces VaR risk measurement method to measure the income risk of Internet money funds based on the comparison analysis with traditional money funds.This paper selects five Internet money funds and five traditional monetary funds to analyze its yield sequence characteristics.The VaR is calculated using parametric method,but the results cannot be evaluated and controlled properly.Then,an ARCH class model was established to predict the VaR value of the same day in the three distributions of normal,t and GED,and the actual results and calculation results were compared.The final conclusion is that the ARCH class model deals with the yield sequence of the Internet balance treasure fund over the parameter method.Then,the equation is established for the GARCH(1,1)model of tianhong yuebao monetary fund,and the VaR test is carried out.Through the empirical analysis of the risk analysis of yuebao Internet money funds,the countermeasures are put forward from both the industry and the investors.Industiy,through the information transparency to the risk of market restriction,improve risk management ability in order to achieve the internal operational control,set up the critical value in response to a system failure,and quality control measures to avoid information leakage;Investors should understand the nature of the product,recognize the source of the fund,and rationally allocate the portfolio to avoid risk.At present,the Internet balance treasure money fund meets the needs of the people's investment needs and the regulatory agencies to encourage innovation,which promotes the good development of financial market and the realization of structural balance.However,due to the late start of the financial market in China,the Internet financial development time is short,and the Internet balance treasure fund is facing many problems such as inadequate supervision and diversification of risks.At this time,China's Internet balance treasure products need to strengthen risk management and control,and predict and solve the risks.It is hoped that the exploratory research results of this topic can provide reference for yuebao Internet money fund and investment users.