A Study On The Influence Of The Change Of Monetary Intermediary Index On The Fluctuation Of Shenzhen Component Index

The prosperity of the capital market has provided an inexhaustible motive force for the rapid development of the national economy in the vast number of developed countries.Today,the stock market of our country thrives,correctly handling the relationship between the money market and the capital market so as to adjust the economy is a major issue facing the central bank.Especially under the pattern of China's special capital market,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore whether the changes in the index of the monetary policy affect the volatility of the Shenzhen Component Index,both for the monetary authorities and the investors and regulators in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.The intermediary index of monetary policy is an important medium for the central bank to regulate and control monetary policy and manage the national economy.It is also an important factor that affects the stock price change.It is important to explore the impact of the change in the monetary policy intermediary indicator on the volatility of the Shenzhen Component Index and the impact mechanism,The conduction efficiency of Shenzhen stock market is an important channel for the development of the Shenzhen stock market.At the same time,it can also help investors in Shenzhen identify the rich information contained in the changes in the index of the monetary policy.They make rational judgments on the stock price movements in advance and make full use of valid information Shenzhen market,make a reasonable investment decision,thereby increasing the return on investment.Firstly,it elaborates the domestic and international theoretical research on the influence of monetary policy on stock price.After summarizing and refining,we found that among all kinds of monetary policy indicators,the intermediary indicator-money supply and interest rate have the most significant impact.The status quo and the actual situation of our country to determine these two indicators as research variables.Next,in order to further clarify the direction and mechanism of the influence of these two types of monetary policy intermediary indicators on the volatility of the Shenzhen Component Index,a normative analysis was conducted to clarify the changes in monetary policy in different periods in our country and the historical trend of the intermediary indicators.By means of absolute numbers and Relative number of two angles,direct observation of the money supply,the interest rate and "SZ" fluctuations between the correlation.The results showed that the relevance and impact direction is not clear.Then,a theoretical analysis is carried out to explain the influence path and direction of the money supply and interest rate on the fluctuation of Shenzhen Component Index from the theoretical level,and to solve what should be the problem.And based on theoretical analysis to make empirical assumptions,suppose a:the money supply through different paths affect the Shenzhen Component Index volatility;Hypothesis 2:interest rates through different paths affect the Shenzhen Component Index volatility.Based on the above two assumptions,we conduct a modeling analysis and select the monthly data from January 2000 to September 2017:Ml,M2,1,and 7-day inter-bank lending rates and the monthly closing prices of Shenzhen Component Index to establish MS-VAR Model and a series of modeling and analysis leads to the following conclusions:Both the money supply and the interest rate have different influence on the Shenzhen Component Index fluctuating within different zoning regimes;interest rates have a greater impact on Shen Chengzhi than M1 and M2 As the representative of the money supply;Overall,M1 and M2 on the SZ after the first negative impact,R1 on the SZ have significant negative impact;R7 on the SZ first negative impact,and then into a positive impact.According to the conclusions,make the following suggestions:The monetary authority should pay attention to the influence of the change of the intermediary index on the stock price volatility in the Shenzhen market,avoid the huge stock market volatility to damage the interests of investors and the long-The authorities should pay attention to the linkage between the money market and the Shenzhen market;investors in Shenzhen should pay close attention to the changes in the monetary policy intermediary indicators,establish a rational investment concept,adjust the investment strategy according to different periods,and should abide by the securities market laws and regulations to resist insider trading and improper competition.