The Impact Of Economic Fluctuation On The Performance Of Commercial Banks

Since 2012,China's economic growth rate has shifted from high speed to medium and high speed growth,and has entered a new economy.But in the context of China's overall GDP slowdown and stock market downturn,the major commercial banks still maintain a steady growth momentum.The traditional economic theory holds that the performance of commercial banks is pro cyclical,that is,when the economy is booming,the performance of commercial banks is soaring.When the economy is depressed,the performance of commercial banks decreases,and even contributes to the economic fluctuation,which makes them enter a more depressed stage.The relationship between the performance of Chinese commercial banks and the economic fluctuations seems different from the expectations of traditional economics.In order to further explore the relationship between the performance of economic fluctuations and commercial banks,the paper summarizes the relationship between the two definitions and theories,then analyzes the status quo of economic fluctuations and the performance of commercial banks,and the status of theory and practice,analysis the impact of economic fluctuations on the performance of commercial banks.On this basis,select the relevant data from 1999 to 2016 of 10 listed commercial banks,through the establishment of data envelopment analysis(DEA)model,the comprehensive performance level of commercial banks are based,and then a vector autoregression(VAR)model,effect and direction in order to get the impact of economic fluctuations on commercial bank performance the.The empirical results show that although the performance of China's commercial banks has opposite cyclical behavior in recent years,it is generally in accordance with the pro cyclical characteristics,and the economic fluctuation restricts the performance level of China's commercial banks.The reason is that China's commercial banks are still in the stage of rapid development,and the downward trend of China's macro economy is relative to the past years,which generally maintain the growth rate of the new normal.In the future economic situation,by adjusting the structure of credit assets,improving credit risk control capabilities and enriching business categories,commercial banks can effectively maintain their performance level in economic fluctuations.