Research On Risk Evaluation Of Personal Housing Provident Fund Loan Balance

With the deepening of the reform of China's urban housing system and the continuous development of real estate finance,more and more residents have chosen to purchase loans to solve the housing problem.As a policy loan,housing provident fund loans have the policy advantage of “low savings and low loans” and have become the main way for employees to use provident funds.In recent years,individual housing provident fund loans have developed rapidly.The scale of provident fund loans has continued to expand,showing good market prospects.However,the problems and risks of provident fund loans are gradually exposed.The real estate market,the area of commercial housing transactions and the fluctuation of housing prices,the increase in the overdue rate of provident fund loans,and the sharp increase in the balance of loans caused the concern of the provident fund management center and the general public.As of the end of 2016,Suzhou had cumulatively issued 389,900 personal housing provident fund loans and 103.837 billion yuan,and the balance of provident fund loans was 60.872 billion yuan,a year-on-year increase of 13.67%,25.14%,and 27.93%.Personal housing provident fund loans were used as policy loans and their risks.With long-term accumulation,based on the growing demand from homebuyers for providing provident fund loans,the housing provident fund management center needs to make judgments and reflections on potential loan balance risks to protect the interests of taxpayers in general.Loan default risk has always been the focus of domestic and foreign lending institutions and scholars.At the same time,they have also conducted a large number of theoretical and empirical studies.On the basis of summing up the results of previous generations,this paper constructed an individual housing provident fund loan balance risk assessment index system including borrower characteristics,provident fund loan characteristics,home purchase characteristics,solvency characteristics,and macroeconomic characteristics,and used the Suzhou Provident Fund loans to purchase homes.And has not paid off the residents for the study and conducted a questionnaire,the use of analytic hierarchy process,the use of SPSS20.0 statistical software for empirical research,the status of individual housing provident fund loans in Suzhou,the status of risk assessment and evaluation,and put forward relevant recommendations.Research shows that the balance of provident fund loans in Suzhou is very safe,and the total default risk of individual housing provident fund loans is relatively low.Most households have higher solvency,but they still need to be vigilant to protect public interests.