An Empirical Study On The Fluctuation Of Real Estate Price In Hefei Based On Improved GM Model

In1998,China's housing construction department started the reform of the housing system,ended the housing distribution system in China,and gradually formed a real estate market property rights and transaction mechanism that was mainly based on market economy and supplemented by government guidance.Commercial housing began to enter our lives.The real estate industry has developed rapidly.As an important part of China's tertiary industry,the real estate industry is one of the pillar industries of the national economy.From1998 to 2008,real estate prices were generally stable,although there were some fluctuations within the range.Since 2009,the upsurge of house prices has gradually been pushed to major cities across the country,creating a housing bubble,and house price fluctuations and trends have become hot topics for the government,companies,the public,and the media.The author believes that there are many reasons leading to price fluctuations: In the short term,loose monetary policy and speculative behavior caused by market information asymmetry are the main external causes of rising housing prices;in the long run,the internal driving force for rising house prices is the rapid economic development.To enable consumers to invest in real estate.However,with the gradual increase of market demand,local governments and real estate developers have jointly promoted the rapid rise in housing prices,as well as the imperfect legal system and the psychological expectations of residents,which increase the uncertainty of price fluctuations,forcing the government to increase regulation of real estate.The intensity of price fluctuations.In recent years,the Central Government has actively promoted multi-subject supply,multi-channel protection,and simultaneous hiring and purchase.The principle of insisting that the house is used to live,not used for speculation,has not been shaken,and intensive regulation and control policies have been introduced,thus restraining irrational price increases.Smooth price fluctuations have played a role.First of all,this article chooses Hefei City real estate price fluctuation as the research object,expounds the background of the topic,research purpose,research significance,etc.Then it introduces the domestic and foreign real estate price cycle fluctuation research results and relevant real estate related concepts and theories,and briefly shows this article The main content,research methods,research ideas and innovations of the study;using a large number of economic theories to analyze the formation mechanism of China's real estate price fluctuations.Secondly,from the economic,social,and government regulation and control of real estate prices change the possible reasons for the whole analysis.The grey relational gradeanalysis method is adopted,and GTMS V6.0 software is used to calculate,sort out the relative factors,the absolute and the comprehensive correlation factors,and establish a comprehensive evaluation index system.Based on the empirical results,we find the key factors are: gross domestic product,construction area,sales area,per capita income of residents,real estate investment and the total population,which has great influence on the change of housing price.In the end,based on the statistical data of Hefei in recent 10 years,we use grey theory to improve the GM(1,1)model to analyze the real estate price in Hefei,seek its cyclical change rule,and use eviews8.0 software to simulate the next housing price.It has a certain reference value for the government to formulate the counter cycle guidelines reasonably,adjust the real estate development strategy in real time,and press the rise of the house price.