Study On The Fund Management Strategy Of The Medium-sized And Small Investor Based On Trend Analysis

By the end of 2017,small and medium-sized investors with assets of less than 500000 yuan is 75.1%,so its effects and influence are hard to be ignored.However,the trading decisions and fund management made by small and mediurn-sized investors in stock trading are very ineficient,resulting in long-term losses in stock market trading.In view of the lack of professional investment skills of small and medium-sized investors,this paper designs a simple and easy to learn investment decision and fund management strategy based on technical trend analysis for small and medium-sized investors.The formulation of this strategy has positive significance for realizing the reasonable benefit for small and medium-sized investors and developing small and medium-sized investors.This paper chooses CSI 300 stock index and the gem index as the research object.Based on the combination of MACD index and PSY index system,the transaction model and fund management strategy are designed.Through empirical research and statistical analysis,the feasibility of the transaction model and the income comparison under various fund management strategies are obtained.Guided by the MACD index,when gold cross appears,immediately buy,and when die cross appears,sell immediately.Only trade between gold cross and death cross,while death cross to gold cross,stop all transactions.The MACD index combined with PSY is used to predict crossover ahead of time,to improve the accuracy of cross judgment,and to grasp the buying and selling points.The PSY index value has a good effect in judging the gold cross and death cross.On the basis of trend analysis,four kinds of fund management models are designed.Through statistical analysis,it is concluded that the best fund management model is as follows:Taking all the funds at that time as the investment target,When the buy signal of MACD gold cross appears,1.6 times full position purchase through margin trading.The CSI 300 index after 8 days or the GEM index after 14 days respectively,sell margin trading,adjusting position to 1.0.Finally,when the sell signal of MACD death cross appears,sell all stocks.The cumulative yield of 7.3 years are 2363.84%and 6115.82%,respectively.With the initial principal as the investment target and the total capital as the investment target,the yield are obviously different,the former being linearly increasing,while the latter being exponential increasing,and the R2 of both ways are higher than 0.9.The Sharpe ratios of the five fund management and investment methods are positive,and the second model of the GEM index is highest at 0.80.The use of margin trading can significantly increase the Sharpe ratio of the GEM index portfolio,but the CSI 300 Index is limited effect.