Wine Stock Market Industry Analysis

Wine is an alcoholic beverage made by fermenting substances such as grains and fruits that contain starch or sugar.In China,alcohol is a special kind of cultural carrier and occupies an unique position in interpersonal communication.The drinking culture has been prospering for thousands of years.The consumption of wine by the Chinese is not only a pleasure but also a need for social etiquette and business entertainment.In the Chinese stock market in 2017,an industry sector that attracted the most attention from investors was undoubtedly the wine-making sector(880380).Throughout the year,its sector index rose from 1,506 points to 2,777.if investors bought Liquor-type passive funds,the annual return rate could exceed 80%.At that time,the leading stock in the wine-making sector,Kweichow Moutai(600519)climbed to the 7th place on the A-share market capitalization ranking.The top 6 were Industrial and Commercial Bank of China,Construction Bank,PetroChina,Ping An of China,Agricultural Bank of China,and Bank of China.In the wine-making industry,except of Kweichow Moutai,which ranks first in terms of market value of trillions,the total market value of Wuliangye,Yanghe shares,and Luzhou Laojiao also exceeds 100 billion.Based on this background,this article analyzes the factors affecting the value of the wine stocks,and provides some ideas and references for investors in wine stocks.Modern asset pricing theory usually uses single-factor or multi-factor models.The most commonly used one-factor model is the capital asset pricing model(CAPM).This article will firstly introduce modern asset pricing theory and CAPM model theory,and then since the CAPM model has many defects,the Arbitrage Pricing Model(APT)in the multi-factor model was leaded.In the APT model,there is a problem of how to filter the influence factors.Using the principal components analysis and factors analysis methods,the correlation among the impact factors can be analyzed,and several representative principal components can be selected to influence the impact.As a result,factors were reduced.In the empirical part,this article firstly uses the closing prices of wine-making sector at the end of each month from January 2014 to December 2017 in Shanghai and Shenzhen market to calculate the monthly return of the wine-making index..Then the article begins with the three aspects of macro indicators,industry indicators,and market indicators.The exploratory factor analysis method is used to extract the common factors of the three aspects and complete the first descending weft.Then use the multiple linear regression analysis in SPSS to study the influence of each of the macro factors,industry,and market common factors on the monthly yield of the A-share market wine-making index.Finally,this paper then uses the factor analysis method to continue to use the factor analysis to extract the common factor index,complete the second descending weft,and then make the second index of the summary index and the wine-making index monthly return rate for the second time.Multiple regression analysis,resulting in the final APT model.The results show that there are four main factors affecting the changes in liquor stock:commodity prices,corporation performance,consumer confidence,and overall market yield.Among them,the overall market yield has the greatest impact.