Research On The Impact Of Land Finance On The Scale Of Local Government Debt

In the face of the problem of local government debt in China today,the study finds that it is inextricably linked with the land.Therefore,under the basic pattern of “land finance”,it introduces the variable of land transfer income.It is an important issue for local governments in all provinces.The source of funds and credit rely on the foundation,and it is also a problem that must be faced and resolved when China's local government debts are repaid and faced with risks.In this paper,based on the context of China's special institutional environment,the connotations of land finance and related institutional policies represented by land prices and land transfer revenues are included in the research category of over-expansion of local government debt scale,so that various variables can be examined in a broad sense.The interaction and influence relationship of the scale of local government debt can help us to understand the mechanism of the local government debt and the dependence path of the scale expansion,so as to analyze and research the practical problems of the sustainability and risk of local government debt.Lay a good foundation.China is in the process of continuously carrying out in-depth reform of various systems and policy environments implemented by the government.To achieve a sound and sustainable financial development of governments at all levels in China,from a macro perspective,land finance is a local government at all levels.The important mode of government economic development is an important source of funding for local government debt.Based on this,this paper starts with the institutional level of government debt and analyzes the importance of the land system under the premise of land system from the institutional perspective of government debt.In this context,the land price will be abstracted from the interaction relationship between the two.The two elements of land transfer revenue are to explore its mechanism of action on the scale of local government debt.In the empirical research,the model of multivariate regression analysis was firstly applied to econometric methods using the provincial panel data of 30 provinces across the country.In this paper,the panel vector autoregressive model(PVAR model)is chosen to test the stability and stability of the model,followed by GMM estimation and impulse response analysis.Finally,the variance decomposition is used to predict the expansion of land prices to the scale of local government debt.The impact was enormous,and land finances showed an overall trend of going down and up.Finally,it explores the development of the East,Central and West regions of China.In the eastern region,the scale expansion caused by the impact of land prices was the most intense,the central region was slightly weaker than the eastern region,and the western region was affected by land finances differently from the eastern and central regions.The impact of land finance brought about a reduction in the scale of debt.The analysis shows that the local government debt problem in China is derived from the relevant fiscal and taxation systems under the background of the tax sharing system.Under the investment demand for the special economic element of land finance,the scale of local government debt has been continuously expanded.The government's motivation for borrowing with high credibility has been continuously strengthened,which in turn has catalyzed the impact of land finance and related systems on the expansion of local government debt,resulting in a land-centric fundraising,guaranteeable,repayable financing model;land prices With the promotion of the stable scale of government debt with land transfer fees,the further increase in land prices has accelerated the operation of the model of land investment and financing mechanisms;in the empirical study of three cities in eastern,central and western parts of China,the eastern region has participated in land finance.The incentive is very high.Because of the high level of land prices,the land transfer fee per unit area is high.This motive to increase the extra-budgetary income has been continuously strengthened,making the expansion of the scale of local government debt under the influence of land finance increasingly intense.There is a huge gap in the competition in the western region,while the middle of the east China eased highly.In the western region,due to its land characteristics,on the one hand,his investment in local infrastructure construction accounts for a large part of the budgetary fiscal expenditure.Therefore,he has little incentive to carry out construction through land finance.On the other hand,the western region contains direct The ethnic minority areas with fiscal subsidies and transfer payments also have less incentive.Therefore,the scale of local government debt in the western region under the influence of land finance has not significantly expanded or even steadily declined.In summary,this paper analyzes the mechanism of the formation of land finance and land prices on the formation of local government debt and analyzes the effect of the study of the panel data of each province on the land finance and land prices,and draws a strong dependence of local government debt on land finance.There are huge economic hidden troubles.The local government formulates relevant policies from the perspective of the fiscal point of view and rational use of resources,so as to control the expansion of local government debt,and to reduce the risk of local government debt.