Longevity Risk Prediction Based On Lee-Carter Model And Its Impact On Insurance Companies

At present,the topic of “health” is getting more and more attention.At the same time,as medical technology continues to mature,our country's treatment and cure rates for major diseases also have made great progress.The extension of life expectancy and the drastic reduction in mortality caused by advances in medical technology will all lead to unpredictable longevity risks for Chinese insurance companies.This risk has a far-reaching impact on insurance companies,it will affect the entire insurance industry.The prediction of this risk is equivalent to the prediction of future mortality.This study mainly combines the characteristics of changes in the mortality rate in China,using the Lee-Carter model to predict the future mortality in China,so as to quantify the longevity risk,and then analyze the impact of longevity risk on the pension insurance.This article follows the logical sequence of the definition,prediction,and impact of the longevity risk.It is divided into four chapters for analysis.In addition,in this research method,the combination of qualitative(theoretical knowledge)and quantitative(model and data analysis)methods is used to predict the longevity risk.It needs to be emphasized that due to limited data sources and complex data calculation,many missing data cannot be found at present.Therefore,this paper makes the analysis results closer to the actual situation.Finally,this paper uses the Eviews software to estimate and predict the data.It is not only easy to operate but also greatly shortens the time of calculation results and improves the efficiency.