Research On AR Company's Sales Forecast Of Cleaning Products

AR company is a medium-sized company that mainly sells cleaning products.The detergents that are distributed include more than 200 kinds such as washing powder and liquid washing products.The company's annual sales are about 30 million yuan.With the continuous development of the company,the company's sales of detergents continue to grow.Because of inaccurate sales forecasts,AR companies may experience stockouts or excess inventory.This article uses Bayesian combination forecasting method to predict the AR company's cleaning products,helping companies to reduce costs.The main results of the paper are as follows.AR company sales forecast analysis of cleaning products.After investigating and analyzing the current situation of AR's sales forecast for detergents,the detergents are categorized into two categories: general detergents and special detergents.Separately selected representative products from two types of detergents,and analyzed data in the past two years for a total of 24 months,summarizing the problems in AR's sales forecast,mainly include the lack of inventory due to inaccurate consumer demand and The inventory at the end of the month due to inventories was not fully considered.AR company Bayes sales forecast for detergents.A Bayesian combination sales forecast model was established for common detergents and special detergents,respectively,and the models were used to forecast the sales volume in each month for the last two years and calculate the difference between sales volume and purchase volume,and the degree of fit of the predicted values under the model was further calculated.Just as the average of the absolutevalue of the difference between sales volume and purchase volume.And calculate the fitting degree of the previous prediction value.The degree of fit of the predicted sales volume predicted by the combinatorial model is compared with the fitted degree of the previously predicted sales volume.The smaller the fitting degree,the closer the prediction value under the prediction model is to the actual sales volume.The results show that the predicted sales volume of common detergents and special detergents under the Bayesian combination forecasting model is closer to the actual sales,and the inventory cost is also lower than before.Adjusting the purchase volume according to the predicted sales volume of the selected model can effectively reduce the loss caused by excessive inventory or shortage of goods.