| Innovation is the first impetus to development and the strategic support for constructing a modern economic system.China's economy is shifting from the phrase of rapid growth to a new phase of high-quality development.Recognizing the current situation of innovation,and clarifying the role of government,is of great significance to facilitate the rational use of innovative resources and enhance the efficiency of innovation,so that the reform of high-quality economic development driving by innovation can be realized.Presently,land finance income is the main body of fiscal system,which should be taken as an important factor that influences innovation output.On the one hand,land finance income as a source of government revenue,provides financial security for innovation subsidy.On the other hand,land finance leads to the rapid growth of land prices,which impedes the process of technological innovation.Therefore,land finance system has both positive and negative effects on innovation,manifesting as the threshold effect under different finance levels.Also,because of the fiscal competition with neighboring provinces,the levels of land finance show spatial correlation characteristics.Land finance has a spillover effect on innovation.Researching the threshold effect and spillover effect of land finance on technological innovation,is of great significance for controlling the scale of land finance and stimulating technological innovation.Based on the domestic and foreign related research and concepts,this paper analyzes the mechanism of land finance's effect on technological innovation.Then,with the provincial panel data of our country from 2001 to 2015,the threshold effect and spatial spillover effect are studied from an empirical perspective.Firstly,panel threshold models are established,taking finance land as threshold variable,governments' innovation subsidy and losing of innovative talents caused by growth of land prices as explaining variables,and technological innovation output as explained variable.The panel threshold models explore the optimal intervals of land finance scale.Secondly,Moran's I index is adopted to examine the spatial autocorrelation characteristics of land finance and technological innovation outputs.Spatial autoregressive models,spatial error models and spatial Durbin models,which uncover spillover effects,are established with the spatial weight matrices based on adjoining relations,geographical distances and economic geographical distances.The results show that,by improving government investment on innovation activities,land finance significantly stimulates technological innovation.However,as the rise of land finance level,high house price will have negative effect on innovation,because creative talents are likely to flow to real estate industry for higher salary.Therefore,land finance's stimulation on technological innovation is not sustainable in the long run.From the spatial perspective,land finance's impact on technological innovation shows significant spatial correlation characteristics.By improving government's investment on innovation,land financial has positive effect on surrounding areas;but taking the losing of creative talents into consideration,the spread of high house prices impedes the gathering of talents,and the positive effect is greatly weakened.Besides,control variables,including R&D inputs by firms,openness of market,and technical exchange among firms,have positive spillover effects on the improvement of innovation output.This paper considers land finance's impact on technological innovation,which provides a new perspective for researching how fiscal policies influence technological innovation.With panel threshold models,this paper studies the nonlinear effect of land finance on technological innovation,and exploring the best level of land finance to promote technological innovation.Under various spatial weight matrices,the spatial autocorrelation characteristics of land finance and technological innovation are tested by Moran's I index.Then,spatial econometric models are established to analyze the spillover effect of land finance on the output of technological innovation.The results provide evidence for optimizing land finance system and improving the level of technological innovation,and corresponding suggestions are given. |
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