Demographic Change And Prediction On Two-Child Policy

At present,our country's economy and population have both entered into a "new normal".The new normal is the economic sustainable development on the basis of the symmetrical economic structure,including sustainable economic growth.The new normal emphasizes "steady growth" structure of the economy,rather than the total economy,focuses on the symmetrical state of economic structure and the sustainable development on the basis of symmetrical state,not just on GDP,per capita GDP growth and maximize economic scale.The new normal is to use growth promoting development,and use development promoting growth.One of the characteristics of the population of China in the new normal is the recession of demographic dividend and the advantage of labor force is rapidly declining.After implementing reform and opening policy,the population dividend made huge contribution to China's economic development.After a rapidly transition from high fertility to low fertility,the principal contradiction of our population has transformed from growing too quickly into a demographic dividend,near low fertility level,an aging population,and unbalance of sex ratio at birth.In the 20th century,many developed countries is facing the face the grim problem of an ageing population,because of the fertility level gradually reduce and the gradual improvement of the population average life expectancy.For the population structure,China's elderly population proportion is rising,and increases from 13.3%in 2010 to 15.5%in 2014.At present,China has become one of the countries,which are in the fastest speed of aging population.China is experiencing the change of population structure,which is very similar with Japan in the beginning of 1990s.After the demographic dividend disappeared,Japan still insisted on adopting economic stimulus plan trying to maintain economic growth,eventually leading to economic bubble expanding and burst,and damage to the real economy may be far more than the "lost decade".China Aging Development Report Twelve-Five Plan pointed that over the next 20 years,the aging of the population growing,and to the 2030,the national scale of elderly population will be double.With the increasingly serious population aging,China's rapid economic growth after the reforms is likely to be hit,for the ageing population will change the foundation of China's rapid economic growth-the low labor cost advantage.In this context,actively responding to the adverse effects of an ageing population and reducing the negative impact of the population aging on economic growth as much as possible are our current task.In November 2013,our country put forward that the only children couples can have two child,aimed at easing the increasingly population ageing.International and domestic academics has a lot of theoretical and empirical research about the relationship between the population structure and economic growth.The paper proceeds as follows.Section one is the introduction which mainly introduces the background,the significance and the relevant literature review.In second two is about the theoretical model,based on the Pattner(2016)model,some changes have been made such as people's life expectancy and take the government into the economy considering the government role in the economy.In this paper,the third part are prediction of the effect of implementation of the two-child policy based on the theoretical model and the current economic situation and puts forward relevant policy Suggestions.