| Fujian province is the key collective forest area in southern China.Forest coverage is the highest in the China,reaching 65.95%.Its ecological environment is excellent,its natural resources are abundant,forestry insurance is the first development,and forestry economy is developed.At present,the research on forest insurance in Fujian province mainly around the supply and demand theory,development mechanism,payment willingness,influencing factors and other aspects to make descriptive analysis and offer policy suggestions,the relevant quantitative study is less,especially on the determination of the rate of forest insurance and the study of subsidized regionalization are more weak.Base on the method of probability model,risk assessment,exponential smoothing and cluster analysis,this paper tries to reveal the regional development characteristics of forest fire insurance in Fujian Province,which from the forest fire statistical characteristics risk probability,comprehensive evaluation,regional differences in fire risk,insurancerates and policy subsidy zoning to discuss the risk assessment,insurancerates and zoning of forest fire in Fujian Province.The forest fire data from 2001 to 2015 in 9 cities of Fujian province were analyzed from a more microcosmic perspective.(1)this paper uses the information diffusion theory to establish a risk probability model of forest fire in Fujian province.The results found that the forest firea are serious occurrence,on average 348 times per year and the degree of disaster caused by forest fire in different years is different.The probability of occurrence of more than 180 times of general and larger forest fires per year is 84.923%.The proportion of major forest fires is about 0.45%,and the probability of occurrence of more than 2 occurrences per year is 77.597%,but the loss accounts for more than 80%of total forest fire losses.The probability of above average of occurrence frequency and occurrence rate of different types of forest fires are about 50%?%60in a year.(2)By using improving the catastrophe progression method,the forest fires in every city of Fujian Province was assessed.The results showed that from 2001 to 2015,the forest fire has happened 5 225 times in Fujian Province,the cumulative casualties were 74 people,and a total economic loss was about 3.74 billion yuan.The total economic loss in Sanming is the most serious,about 1.03 billion yuan,accounting for 27.6%.There are significant differences in the comprehensive value and occurrence degree of forest fires in different years in different cities,in the worst year of forest fires in Quanzhou,the comprehensive score reached 1.00,and the total score was less than 0.1 for 8 years,accounting for 53.3%of the total.Comprehensive value has big difference before and after the adjustment,the initial comprehensive value is focused on[0.6,1],and the adjustment of comprehensive value is distributed in[0,1],which makes the grade and size of comprehensive value more comparable.(3)According to the forest insurance data and insurance index,we know that the simple insurance coverage rate in Fujian Province is 43.68%,which is higher than general commercial insurance.The area with high forest fire hazard is located in the northeast of Fujian province.In nine cities,the highest risk of forest fire is Fuzhou,insurance index about 87.378,and the higher one is Ningde,about 60.348.The forest fire index is between 2 to 88 in the same province,which indicates that there is a great difference in fire risk in different cities of Fujian province.(4)We use exponential smoothing to determine the premium rates of forest fires in 9 cities of Fujian province,and find that the loss rate of forest fires in 3 cities of Longyan,Fuzhou and Quanzhou fluctuates and the extreme values are relatively larger.The predicted values of index smoothing are 0.690,0.621,0.443,and the mean square error is 0.949,0.688,0.372,respectively.There are significant differences in the premium rates of different cities in fujian province.Longyan has the highest rate of forest fire insurance rate of 2.085‰,with the lowest rate in Zhangzhou being only 0.538‰.(5)Based on cluster analysis,the policy premium subsidy of 9 cities in Fujian province is partitioned.The results show that there are significant differences in the level of economic development in different cities in Fujian Province.The implementation of policy insurance subsidies should be based on local conditions.The 4 areas of Nanping,Sanming,Ningde and Longyan have low financial capacity,heavy burden of forest farmers fnsurance and backward insurance development,which should be classified as high subsidy areas,and the economically more developed areas of Fuzhou,Quanzhou and Xiamen should be classified as lower subsidy and low subsidy areas... |
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