| The private economy is a kind of economic concept and economic form with Chinese characteristics.In the process of economic system reform,the private economy has become the main force to promote the rapid development of China's economy.However,there is a serious disconnect between the development of China's private economy and formal finance.The development of financial support for private economy has become the top priority for enhancing economic vitality and it is a long way to go.Based on this,in order to thoroughly examine the driving forces of the development of China's private economy under the current financial system,this article starts from the following aspects in the view of informal finance.The article systematically discusses the mechanism of informal finance's impact on the development of the private economy,and uses a four-sector endogenous economic growth model to derive and demonstrate the research hypothesis.It turns out that the informal financial sector has improved its capital allocation efficiency.To achieve the growth of private economy,and with the increase of capital,the accumulation rate of private economy sector capital will continue to slow down,when the private economy develops to a certain stage,the effect of informal finance on the development of private economy will gradually weaken,that is,informal The law of diminishing effect exists in the process of financial promotion of private economy development;in the process of transformation and development of serving private economy,dual-finance is showing a complementary relationship.China's informal financial credit scales have found that the average annual growth rate of informal finance in China has been as high as 24.6% over the past decade,which has exceeded the annual average growth rate of formal financial loans by 17%.This paper constructs a time-varying parameter autoregressive(TVP-VAR)model to empirically examine the dynamic impact of China's fiscal policy and informal finance on the development of private economy.The results of equal-interval impulse responses show that in the short-term,medium-term,or long-term,the positive impact of informal finance on private development has greater fluctuations,and as a whole,it shows an “inverted U”-type effect.First increase and then decrease,while the positive impact of fiscal policy on the development of private economy is relatively stable;the impulse response results indicate that the impact of informal financial and fiscal policies on the development of private economy has a cumulative impact effect,and there is no effect of the current period..The relationship among thethree shows a similar trend under different macroeconomic backgrounds.However,compared to the “6th Five-Year Plan” period,informal finance has a greater effect on the development of private economy during the “Eighth Five-Year” and “Tenth Five-Year Plan” periods.In the "12th Five-Year Plan" period,the effect was significantly weakened.Based on the above theoretical deductions and empirical research results,the paper proposes that China should give full play to the advantages of the informal market of low-end financial services,increase formal credit support for the high-end market,and at the same time further regulate the operation of the informal financial market,prevent and control informal Financial risk.To promote the integration of dual financial integration,so that informal finance and formal finance in a state of similar Pareto optimal development,so as to jointly achieve the upgrading of industrial structure and promote the development of private economy. |
