Study On The Effect Evaluation Of China's Corn Reserves Policy

In 2008,in order to stimulate the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain,to protect farmers' income,and to stabilize the grain market,In conjunction with relevant units,the State Development and Reform Commission issued the "measures for interim Price intervention measures for the Collection and Storage of some important Commodities and Services," and temporary storage of important crops,such as corn.Although the implementation of the Corn Reserve Policy has stimulated the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain and effectively stabilized the corn market,with the continuous increase in the amount of reserves collected,the prices collected and stored,the market price of corn is distorted and the stock pressure is too high.Problems such as excessive government financial pressure are highlighted.To this end,in 2016,the state in Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning,Inner Mongolia and other regions in accordance with the "market pricing,price compensation separation" principle,The Corn Reserve Policy which has been implemented for 8 years has been formally adjusted to a new mechanism of "Market Purchasing producer subsidy".In this paper,the qualitative and quantitative methods are used to study the effect of corn interim storage policy from macro and micro perspectives.On the one hand,it is helpful to deepen the understanding of Corn Reserve Policy and explain the necessity of reform.On the other hand,from the micro and macro perspectives,quantifying the effect of the policy,this paper provides a reference for the further improvement of the corn producer subsidy scheme,and looks forward to the future trend of the macro-control policy of the corn market.In order to provide reference for the policy reform of the lowest purchase price in the future.Firstly,this paper analyzes the effect of Corn Reserve Policy,and finds that the policy has a certain effect of increasing production and income.Secondly,taking 2007 as the base year and input-output table in 2007 as the basic data source,this paper attempts to construct a Dynamic Chinese General Equilibrium Model to analyze and evaluate the effect of the Corn Reserve Policy from the macro and micro perspectives.This paper combines and disassembles the input-output table,forms the model data base-social accounting matrix,and from the corn inventory and fiscal cost expenditure brought by the policy as the starting point,simulates the inventory change to the corn industry,the income of urban and rural residents.Other related industries and the impact of GDP.The results of CGE model estimate show that considering the impact of policy,the implementation of Corn Reserve Policy can improve the supply capacity of corn market,increase the price of corn market,increase the income of farmers and the output value of maize industry.But also disturbed the planting structure and the pattern of import and export trade.From the perspective of industrial relevance,under the impact of policy,feed processing,grain grinding,wine and alcohol and other industries reduced the amount of corn consumption.From the perspective of industrial relevance,under the impact of policy,feed processing,grain grinding,wine and alcohol and other industries reduced the amount of corn consumption.As corn prices rise,so does the price of processed goods,which hurts consumers.The implementation of the policy also led to a decline in gross domestic GDP in the three major industries,especially in the secondary sector,where GDP was hit hardest.From the perspective of the stage,the effect of the Corn Reserve Policy can be divided into three periods,namely,the initial stage of policy implementation in 2008-2009 and the middle period of policy implementation in 2010-2012 and the end of policy implementation in 2013-2015.From the perspective of policy effect,the policy effect is still within the acceptable range in the initial and middle stages of policy implementation,but after 2013,the intensity of policy impact has increased greatly,and the policy efficiency has declined.In the long run,the policy is not conducive to market stability and food security.Based on the analysis of the reform and improvement of grain price support system in major foreign countries,combined with the above research conclusions and the actual situation of the reform of Corn Reserve Policy in China,This paper makes the following judgments on the future corn market macro-control policy: first of all,the future corn market macro-control policy should pay attention to the effective linkage and matching between the policies.Secondly,the scheme of producer subsidies should be refined,the total amount of financial subsidies should be decomposed,and the efficiency of subsidies should be further improved.In addition,in the future,the government may provide convenient financing channels and subsidies to guide the pluralistic subjects to enter the market and form the market purchase pattern of corn.Finally,a large number of cheap corn has entered the market.While corn stocks are rapidly digesting,we should be alert to the problem of overcapacity in corn processing enterprises that may break out in the next five years,and we should formulate a reasonable supporting plan and countermeasures to reconcile the supply and demand in the corn market.Actively guide the healthy development of the corn industry.