Path Analysis And Empirical Research Of Shanxi Real Estate Market On The Process Of New Urbanization

The process of urbanization is a continuous shift of population to the city,accompanied by the transfer of economic elements and the optimization of the social structure.According to the urbanization development curve of urbanization expert Northam,The process of urbanization in Shanxi Province has stepped into the stage of accelerated development.While urbanization continues to advance,it also makes the city cite facilities to continuously improve,as a material carrier of urban construction,the real estate industry also develops rapidly.However,Due to the lack of proper control over the real estate market,the supply and demand structure is out of balance and the housing prices are rising.In view of this problem,the central government has put forward a new concept of urbanization,emphasizing that while promoting urbanization,people and people should be emphasized at the same time.The harmonious and unified environment should not blindly pursue the increase of urban population,but should improve the quality of urbanization.The complex terrain of Shanxi Province,the development of urbanization is restricted by objective geographical factors,which makes the population flow to the urban agglomeration of one core,one circle and three groups,although the proportion of urban population increases year by year.However,the overall level of urbanization and the scale of real estate are still lower than the national average.Firstly,a comprehensive scoring model is established to evaluate the urbanization level of Shanxi Province.Secondly,the Granger causality test is used to study the relationship between the real estate market and the development of urbanization in Shanxi Province.The results show that,according to the specific situation of Shanxi Province,the relationship between these two factors There is a one-way causal relationship between them,that is,the development of the real estate market leads to an increase in the level of urbanization.Finally,through the establishment of path analysis,The factors influencing the process of new urbanization in the real estate market are sorted according to the degree of influence,which provides policy advice on how to promote the real estate market in the context of new urbanization.By combing the current development situation of Shanxi Province,this paper thinks that the current real estate market is overstocked,and the pressure of destockingis relatively high.Secondly,it starts from the four angles of population,economy,life and society.By synthetically evaluating the development level of new urbanization in Shanxi Province,through principal component analysis,it is pointed out that the three principal components affecting new urbanization are economic level,industrial structure and labor force.Finally,through path analysis,it points out that the total amount of real estate investment is the main factor to promote the new urbanization in Shanxi Province,and at the same time,Commercial housing sales area and housing sales both played a role In addition,the increase of new fixed assets is a hindrance to urbanization.Finally,this paper based on the above empirical analysis,Under the background of new urbanization,the real estate industry in Shanxi Province should change its target market and turn from Taiyuan,the capital city,to other cities with more opportunities,with the new urban population brought by the new urbanization as the main demand.At the same time,we should take part in the construction of affordable housing in response to the call of the government.Finally,we should pay attention to the protection of the ecological environment while maintaining sustainable development,and do a good job of the new type of urbanization Support.