Research On The Prediction Of Estate Price In Naning Under The Multi-factors

With the development of the national economy and the full implementation of the strategy for the development of the west,the national economy has undergone tremendous changes.At this point,Nanning is facing the best development opportunity in the history,and the living standard of the people is generally improving,so the demand for clothing,food and shelter is also increasing.Since the beginning of the new century,a large number of people have begun to pour into Nanning from the surrounding areas.The government of Nanning has also issued relevant real estate control policies.Therefore,the real estate price of Nanning has been fluctuating.This paper studies the fluctuation of real estate prices in Nanning and predicts the future development trend of Nanning real estate prices.It can control the development of real estate market from the macro angles,guarantee the stability of Nanning's real estate prices,and maintain the healthy development of the real estate market.Therefore,this paper studies the development of Nanning's real estate price under the influence of many factors,extracts the factors that affect the real estate price of Nanning,and constructs the prediction model of real estate price,so as to provide a theoretical basis for Nanning's real estate price control.Through the analysis of the development of real estate in Nanning,combined with local customs,the factors that affect the price of real estate in Nanning are excavated.Starting from the three aspects of supply and demand factors,economic factors,policy factors,including the extraction of real estate supply,investment in real estate development,real estate demand,environmental factors,second-hand housing index,public expenditure,housing rental policy,two-child policy and 15 factors.According to the extracted factors,we use grey correlation degree to determine the main impact of real estate prices,and get 8 factors,such as real estate supply,real estate development investment and real estate demand.Based on wavelet neural network and the characteristics of wavelet basis function,we use weighted way to fuse wavelet basis function,change the hidden layer neural function of wavelet neural network,and build the prediction model of real estate price in Nanning.Collecting data related to factors,and use Eviews8.0 to test the stability of the data.Using the processed data,the grey relational degree is calculated,and the relationship between the influence factors and the real estate price is analyzed,and the main influencing factors are extracted.From January 2006 to August 2015 data of Nanning city as the training data,the prediction model for real estate price forecast in Nanning city from September 2015 to December 2016 12 real estate prices,get the absolute prediction error is 54.32 yuan,the relative error is 0.0049,the desired error value,and has good prediction effect.At the same time,the improved wavelet neural network and the traditional neural network prediction results are compared to verify the accuracy and applicability of the improved wavelet neural network.According to the forecast results,the paper summarizes the research results,the development for the current situation of Nanning City,starting from the three aspects of supply and demand factors,economic factors,policy' factors,put forward the reasonable proposal to the Nanning City real estate adjustment,put forward the future study direction and guidance for the Nanning City real estate prices stable development.