The Dynamic Influence Of Credit Loan Policy On House Prices Under The Background Of Real Estate Control

In recent years,as the process of China's reform and opening up,the real estate industry has been developing vigorously in our country and has occupied an important position in the national economy.However,when the real estate industry develops rapidly and improves people's livelihood,there has been a long period of rapid rise in housing prices.In order to promote the sustainable and stable development of the real estate industry,a number of regulatory policies about real estate industry have been promulgated by the government.Among all regulatory policies of real estate industry,credit policies are often the most direct and most commonly measures.However,the performance of the real estate market in house price after the implementation of credit policies is quite different from the expectation.Due to the different economic environment and policies in different periods,the causal relationship between the two economic variables may change.The current literatures rarely consider time-varying and dynamics causal relationship between the two economic variables.Therefore,this paper uses the wavelet model to explore the dynamic interaction between credit loans and house prices.It divides credit loans into bank credit loans for real estate companies,non-bank credit loans for real estate companies,and personal credit loans for buying houses.This paper discusses the dynamic relationship between house prices and credit loans,and discusses at what points the structure will change.This paper theoretically analyzes the interactive relationship between house enterprise bank credit loans and house prices,non-bank credit loans for house enterprises and house prices,personal credit loans and house prices.This paper sorts out the mechanism of credit impact on house prices.Then this paper uses the Fourier unit root test to determine the data structure of house prices.Based on the characteristics that the house price time series data has sine terms and cosine terms that are not zero,this paper employs a wavelet model that is suitable for the real estate market time series data with sine terms and cosine terms,then this paper discuss the dynamics of credit loan on house prices.The wavelet model is used to quantify the dynamic correlation between bank credit loans for real estate companies and house price,non-bank credit loans for real estate companies and house prices,personal credit loans for buying houses and house prices.There are four findings as follow: First,bank credit loans and non-bank credit loans are the main sources of capital for house enterprises.Therefore,merely adjusting the scale of bank credit does not fully play the role of regulation and control.The departments of government urgently need to strengthen the top-level design of real estate industry and should play a leading role in coordinating positions of various regulatory policies involving bank credit loans,non-bank credit loans as well as personal credit loans for real estate industry.The size of bank credit loans,non-bank credit loans as well as personal credit loans must be put under rigorous control.The departments of government should consider the penetrating supervision model,which can prevent the influx of the money from non-bank institutions and wealth management funds.Second,bank credit loans for real estate companies and non-bank credit loans for real estate companies have play an important role in house price changes.The impact on the price of house depends on the type of credit loan,and the effect of regulatory policies for real estate industry and regulatory policies for personal credit loan are different.Third,the data of house price fluctuations have cyclical and nonlinear characteristics.Utilizing the Fourier unit root test,this paper finds that the data is a non-linear time series data.China's house prices are volatile,and volatility brings the possibility of pre-judgment of housing prices.Therefore,it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of house prices in advance.Fourth,consumers are passive recipients of rising house prices.Consumers can not bargain with real estate companies.Some consumers' panic buying has virtually pushed up the house prices.Therefore,it is imperative to refer to Germany's mechanism of real estate market to improve the regulatory mechanism in China and strengthen the legal and legislative work in the real estate market.