Analysis Of The Relationship Of Macroeconomic Factors With Life Insurance

The thirteenth session of the National People's Congress(NPC)meeting was held on March 5,2018,in the government report,"insurance" as a high-frequency word appeared a total of 13 times,involves many aspects,from commercial insurance to foreign insurance institutions.The government report for commercial life insurance provides a clear development direction,thinks the commercial life insurance should return to the source of risk guarantee,play as the role of the "social stabilizer",highlight its core value.However,the development of commercial life insurance is still inadequate,although the commercial insurance growth in 2014 has been catch up GDP growth,but the insurance depth still cannot match the development of national economy,to further promote the development of life insurance business,the state council has issued on August 13,2014 several opinions about the speed up the development of modern insurance industry(hereinafter referred to as the "ten new countries")to regulate the health and orderly development of the insurance industry,this article is based on this file release and the appropriate sample size two aspects comprehensive consideration,attends to study in addition to its own development of endogenous factors as well as the macroeconomic factors affecting the development of commercial insurance.This paper studied the related historical documents,the influential factors of life insurance demand can be divided as economic factors,demographic and family structure factors and social culture and political legal factors three aspects to carry on the literature review and combing,and according to this article focuses on the analysis of the macro factors,this article chooses the controversial household savings and lessstudy changes in the money supply and stock index as the target to selected variables.Secondly,according to the selection of household savings,money supply and stock price index the mechanism of the influence to life insurance,for later empirical research conclusions provide a solid theoretical support.Thirdly,the use of dynamic econometric model ARDL model and VAR model test method of the critical value has been carried on the empirical analysis,and obtained the following conclusions:the residents' savings' influence to the life insurance is the most important macroeconomic factor,unlike previous conclusions,the empirical finding prove that residents savings in the short term will be a positive influence rather than a negative impact on life insurance,in the long run will a be positive influence on life insurance;The growth of residents savings and life insurance insurance own had the biggest contribution,both mainly from the endogenous growth,and variance analysis results showed that the degree of life insurance contribution to the growth of residents savings than household savings on the contribution degree of personal insurance;The change of money supply has negative effects on life insurance both in the long term and in the short term.Therefore,the life insurance products are indeed sensitive to interest rate.The stock price index has a weak negative effect on life insurance,which reflects the fungibility of stock and life insurance.Finally,according to the empirical results,this article gives some advice from government regulators,the insurance company and the consumers to help make the commercial insurance faster and better development.The government regulators should promote the development of national economy,improve the residents' disposable income,standard life insurance products,provide residents with proper commercial life insurance products;Life insurance company should increase the publicity of life insurance products,actively use the Internet platform to enhance the market competitiveness of its products;Residents should abandon some preconceptions about commercial life insurance,and make good use of the characteristics of commercial life insurance to select suitable financial security products for themselves and their families.The innovation points of this paper are:the time limit of research is short,which can explain the change of the demand for commercial life insurance after the release of"ten new countries";The selected ARDL threshold test method is seldom applied on the field of life insurance demand research.There are few studies research on the change of money supply and stock price index.The shortcomings of this article are:because of the hope of research the release of "ten new countries" for life insurance and using the monthly data,so the interpretation of the selected variable is little,not including more comprehensive analysis of the influence of macroeconomic factors.