Total Factor Productivity And Survival Probability Of China's Fertilizer Manufacturing Enterprises

Chemical fertilizer is not only an indispensable material input in modern agriculture,but also plays a very important role in the smooth development of the whole national economy,the realization of the country's industrial modernization and even the stability of the state's foreign exchange revenue and expenditure,and the balance of revenue and expenditure.Of course,in the course of development of fertilizer industry,some deep-seated contradictions and problems have also been accumulated.On the one hand,the domestic fertilizer industry is overcapacity,the productivity level is not high,the existing variety layout and demand can not be completely matched;on the other hand,due to the problem of raw material layout,the international market competition ability of the chemical fertilizer industry is obviously weak,and the survival rate of domestic enterprises is low.Now it is the key period to deepen the reform of the supply test and promote the transformation of the industry.It is necessary to make the fertilizer industry in the supply side of the supply side adapt to the development trend of the new industrialization and meet the needs of the development of the agricultural modernization,and to find out the situation and the influencing factors of the fertilizer manufacturing enterprises,including the productivity and the survival rate,and the influencing factors.Be necessary?In this paper,China's industrial enterprise database in the 1998-2011 year of chemical fertilizer manufacturing enterprises as the object of study,combined with descriptive and empirical research two analytical methods,the total factor productivity level,survival probability and the dynamic changes of the two are comparatively detailed and analyzed.We choose different methods to calculate and decompose TFP into four parts,and find the basic factors that affect productivity changes.The differences in the productivity of different ownership types,the survival of domestic enterprises in chemical fertilizer manufacturing industry,the regression model,and the effects of different factors,especially the FDI foreign direct investment,on the total factor productivity and survival probability of the chemical fertilizer manufacturing enterprises are investigated.The results show that,on the whole,the annual growth rate of TFP in China's fertilizer manufacturing industry is about 3.015%.The effect of FDI on the domestic chemical fertilizer manufacturing enterprise TFP is significantly negative at the 5%level,the smaller the scale and the more concentrated capital density,the greater the total factor productivity level,while the FDI has a positive correlation with the expected survival period of the domestic enterprises,and the scale and the survival period of the domestic enterprises.Hope is proportional to the capital density and export behavior of enterprises with greater survival probability.However,it is found that the influence of the capital density and export behavior of different ownership types on the survival probability of the enterprise is different,and the scale is still proportional to the survival probability of the enterprise.But for the state-owned enterprises,the more concentrated the capital density and the export behavior,the higher the survival probability;and the private enterprise is the private enterprise.The lower the capital intensity of the industry is,the higher the probability of survival is.The research enlightens us that,in general,the injection of foreign investment has reduced the TFP of the chemical fertilizer industry in China,but accelerated the competition,and the survival probability of some large-scale enterprises is increasing.At the same time,in the formulation of policies,we should pay attention to distinguish different types of ownership enterprises and give different guidance and support.