Integrated Optimization Of Resilient Supply Chain Considering Decision Makers' Risk Aversion Behavior Under Uncertain Environment

Supply chain faces not only uncertain factors such as demand,price and output fluctuation,but also disruption risk such as earthquake,tsunami and floods and other extreme natural disasters or due to human factors casusing production disruptions such as strike,terrorist attacks and financial crisis in the daily operation of the supply chain.Compared with the uncertain factors such as demand and price,the failure risk factors are small,but the losses which the failure risk factors bring to the supply chain are huge.Therefore,it is important to make the supply chain facing uncertain factors and failure risk keep the operation stability in the uncertain environment.It plays an important role in improving the operational performance and service level.At the same time,different decision makers facing the same event uncertainty and risk will make different decisions.Because the different decision makers have different behavior,which leads to people not always pursuing "maximum utility",but making their satisfacted decisions according to the cognition to the environment and their own limited thughts.The traditional supply chain assumes that the decision maker is completely rational,which can not explain actual problems in the process of the actual operations of the supply chain.So it is important to consider makers' behavior in operational process.There is a simplified uncertainty and not considering the risk preference behavior in the present relevant research.Therefore,this paper adds the missing factors and considers the decision maker risk preference behavior in uncertain environment.Based on the research subject,research work of this paper mainly includes the following aspects:(1)The optimal design of the resilient supply chain network design considering the risk-averse behavior of the decision maker.A mixed integer programming model with the opportunity constraint for minimizing the expected cost of the target is constructed.This model sets up the 'suppliers' alternative source"as an resilient strategy and take the attitude of decision makers as the standard of risk aversion.This paper takes three parameters:the risk aversion coefficient,unit pealty cost,minimum system tolerant reliability of the system cost.The structure and cost of system will change by the sensitivity analysis of three parameters.It will provide effective decision suport for decision makers.(2)The optimal design of the resilient supply chain network design considering the risk preference behavior of the decision maker.This section considers the uncertain demand,the price of raw materials and the disruption risk of the suppliers and factories.And all of these uncertainties are simulated by random scenarios.The target is expected cost(risk-neutral and risk-averse).This model sets up the "suppliers'alternative source","suppliers' joint emergency stock center","factories'joint emergency stock center" as resilient strategies.And the risk preference behavior is measured by CvaR.At last,the sensitivity analysis provides effective decision support for risk-neutral and risk-averse decision makers.(3)The optimal design of the resilient supply chain network design considering service level under risk-averse behavior of the decision maker.On the basis of the last chapter,the mui-objective mixed integer progrmming model of the expected cost andservice level of the worst case is constructed.This model sets up the "suppliers'alternative source","suppliers'joint emergency stock center","factories'joint emergency stock center" as resilient strategies.The sensitivity analysis of the preference parameters and confidence level of the decision maker prove the feasibility and validity of this model.