Analysis Of China's Manufacturing Index And Its Application

China's State Council summarized the Chinese government's manufacturing design as "Made in China 2025" and spread it extensively.The study of manufacturing has become the hot point.Therefore,the study of manufacturing risk distribution is not only consistent with the international economic development trends,but also in keeping with China's "The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" development goals.Analyzing risk of the manufacturing distribution of each industry in the stock market,it can contribute to the relevant listed companies to make reasonable financing decision,and also can help investors avoid the high risk industries when they selected the investment portfolios and investment industries.Moreover,it analyzes the risk structure of China's manufacturing,and then provides a theoretical reference for the relevant departments to develop economy policies.In this paper,based on the constructed 29 industry index for manufacturing,we investigate the risk structure of the whole industry.The main works are as follows:1.We construct industry index then test its validity for manufacturing.By applying the theory of value at risk(Va R)and the theory of conditional value at risk(Co Va R),we constructed 29 index of those industries under the category of manufacturing industry,and tested their validities.In this paper,we choose the index of chemical fiber manufacturing industry as the example to test its validity.The study found that the sum of conditional value at risk of each single stock in this industry is the index value at risk of the chemical fiber manufacturing industry at 23.3417 times.The fluctuation of the index of chemical fiber manufacturing industry can cover the risk information of 21 stocks in this industry.2.The risk of single industry index is discussed.According to the relevant theories,taking the index of food processing industry as an example,we introduced the fitting process of ARCH family model of each index,and the Va R of the index is estimated,which is-0.3991.It is thus clear that the risk of food processing industry is at a moderate level and remains within the controllable range.3.The risk structure of manufacturing is analyzed.First of all,compared the Va R size of each industry index,we found that the Va Rs of fur shoe industry index,waste utilization industry index and food manufacturing industry index are-0.7615,-0.6886and-0.5209,respectively.These industries are ranked in the top three.The results of the analysis show that the risk of manufacturing is mainly concentrated in the traditional industries.Secondly,using the Vine-Copula theory and principal component analysis method,the manufacturing composite index was constructed through selected 11 high-risk industries.Finally,in choosing of high-risk industries,the fur shoe industry and waste utilization industry risk are still ranked in the top two,but the media art industry risk is ranked third.The Va R of manufacturing composite index is-0.2655,which is less than 11 high-risk industry index.The result shows that it is low risk level for the whole manufacturing.