Analysis The Influence Of REER On China's Import And Export Trade

As a bridge connecting domestic market and foreign market,exchange rate will affect the trade balance,foreign investment and the growth of domestic income.It has been one of the hot topics in the academic circles.This paper used import and export trade volume data of 22 kinds of commodity based on HS classification standard、the real effective exchange rate(REER)of RMB and domestic and international income,through comparative analysis method、theoretical analysis method、empirical analysis method and descriptive statistics method,to investigate the REER change effect on different commodities.The article is divided into five parts.The first chapter is the introduction.In the introduction part,the article introduce the main issues.The second chapter is literature review.The third chapter is the analysis of exchange rate and trade theory.The theoretical analysis is the basis of the article,this part has combed with the related theory of exchange rate and trade,such as the theory of international indebtedness,the purchasing power parity theory,analysis of trade balance elasticity,the mechanism of the impact of exchange rate changes.In the analysis part,compared RMB nominal effective exchange rate and real effective exchange rate future trends and mainly summarized three features of current international trade in China.The fourth chapter is the empirical study of RMB real effective exchange rate and trade import and export.This paper constructs a vector autoregressive model,and uses the method of co integration analysis to study the relationship between variables.A few export commodities trade volume,REER and income exist a long-term cointegration relationship.Most imports trade volume,REER and income exist a long-term cointegration relationship.The change of REER has a significant impact on the total amount of China's import trade and has little effect on the total amount of export trade.The effect of REER on trade volume of export commodities is negative.There is a positive correlation between the volume of trade of most imported goods and REER.The change of REER has a significant impact on the classification of export trade,which has a long term co integration relationship.The fifth chapter is the summary and suggestions.Summarizing the previous research results,related suggestions are putforward:(1)the government needs to develop different products import and export trade preferential treatment(2)positive changes in the structure of import and export commodities(3)continue to promote the process of internationalization of the RMB(4)enterprises need to increase the use of financial risk hedging products.