Research On Optimal Auction Duration Based On Seller's Expected Revenue Under Internet Auction

Online auctions have shortened the space-time distance of auctions and start to rise at the same time as the development of e-commerce.Previous studies have shown that longer auction times will attract more bidders,and sellers tend to set longer auction times to achieve higher transaction prices.However,when the auction duration is shorter,it will increase the degree of competition in the auction and thus achieve a higher transaction price.Therefore,how to balance the two and choose the optimal auction duration has become an important factor in the design of the online auction mechanism.In this thesis,based on the random arrival characteristics of bidders in the process of online auctions,a theoretical research and analysis of the optimal auction duration under Internet auctions and the optimal auction duration in multi-item online auctions are conducted.And by selecting the auction data of Taobao in the actual auction for empirical analysis,the model is validated and has practical guidance value.The main research contents are as follows:(1)In the basic optimal auction duration research section,based on the British auction in single-item auctions,a non-homogeneous Poisson process for the arrival of bidders is established to describe the random reachability of bidders in online auction process,when the seller does not set the reserve price and set the public reserve price respectively.Then we propose the lemma of the winning probability of the bidder,and establish the seller's expected profit model.We set the auction duration as a variable,and consider the maximization of the seller's expected profit to get the basic optimal auction duration model.Finally,the optimal auction duration under the eBay auction mechanism is further studied.(2)Aiming at the problem of optimal auction duration for multi-item online auctions,based on the assumptions that the homogeneous items have the same price auction as well as the bidder's demand for the auction item is one.The optimal auction duration when the relationship between the number of bidders and the number of auction items are different is studied,under the unreserved price and the open reserved price,and the rationality of the model is verified by numerical analysis.(3)In the empirical research,based on the basic optimal auction duration model under the Internet auction and Taobao's auction data,the theoretical optimal auction duration is solved for no reserve price and public reserve price respectively.The experimental results show that the theoretical auction duration is shorter than the actual auction duration,and the optimal auction duration when setting the reserve price is shorter than the optimal auction duration without setting the reserve price.Based on the basic experimental results,this thesis proposes that the auction duration can be appropriately shortened when setting the auction duration,and different auction durations can be set for commodities with and without reservation price.