Research On Network Attack Prediction Algorithm Based On NAPG Model

With the development and popularization of Internet technology,while the network has brought great convenience to human beings,the purpose and technical means of cyber attacks have become more diverse,which has made cyber attacks more difficult to predict.Passive prediction can no longer meet the needs of network attack defense,and active prediction has become the main direction of today's network defense development.Based on the analysis and research of existing network attack prediction models,this paper proposes an attack graph model NAPG.The model introduces the attack profit,analyzes the feasibility of the attack behavior,eliminates the redundant path,and improves the accuracy of the node reachability calculation in the attack graph.In addition,the NAPG model introduces the attack gain into the evaluation prediction of the attack path and the attack graph,and improves the comprehensiveness of the evaluation prediction index.The main work and innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)For the problem of unpredictable attack behavior,this paper proposes the octet model NAPG.The NAPG model has the following characteristics: It can clearly show the relationship between resource nodes and attack nodes;it can intuitively reflect the feasibility of attack behavior through exploit cost and attack gain based on exploits;clearly show through PROFIT matrix The partial order relationship between the attack behavior nodes and the attack profit of the attack behavior.(2)In view of the inaccurate calculation of node reachability in the attack graph caused by redundant paths in the network,the Afa-Alg algorithm is proposed in this paper.The Afa-Alg algorithm adjusts the network security sensitivity by proposing the policy adjustment coefficient,analyzes the attack behavior in the attack graph,effectively eliminates the redundant path,and improves the accuracy of the node reachability calcu lation in the attack graph.(3)To evaluate the single problem of predictive metrics for attack paths and attack graphs,this paper introduces attack gains into the evaluation predictors.By combining the attack profit with the path reachability,the PPC-Alg algorithm is used to estimate the attack path.Moreover,the attack profit is introduced into the evaluation and prediction of the attack graph,and the indicators and indicators are used to evaluate and predict the attack graph by using the AME-Alg algorithm.