Research On Risk Early Warning Model Of Agricultural Products Logistics Outsourcing Based On Immune Theory

China is an economy-oriented country.With the rise of logistics industry and the rapid development of China's economy,small and medium-sized agricultural products enterprises have chosen logistics outsourcing to reduce the cost of enterprises.The phenomenon of agricultural product logistics outsourcing has become the norm in China.However,with the emergence of the new normal of agriculture in China,agricultural products logistics and e-commerce,insurance finance,information technology and so on are intertwined,and the complex and changeable agricultural product logistics market leads to many risks and dilemmas in agricultural product logistics outsourcing.Only the agricultural product logistics outsourcing as a whole,using the systematic scientific method to identify,evaluate,monitor and alert the agricultural product logistics outsourcing risks.Finding the main risk factors that restrict its development,and proposing solutions to these risk factors,can achieve the sustainable development of agricultural product logistics outsourcing,and thus help China's agricultural development.This paper summarizes the agricultural logistics outsourcing risk related articles,builds the agricultural product logistics outsourcing risk early warning index system based on the analytic hierarchy process and expert scoring method,and combines the biological immune principle and early warning theory to construct the agricultural product logistics outsourcing risk early warning model.The main risk factors of agricultural product logistics outsourcing were further tested by MATLAB simulation technology,and corresponding risk countermeasures were proposed.The main contents include.(1)Collecting relevant literature on agricultural logistics outsourcing risk,analyzing and classifying,summarizing representative risk indicators,and constructing risk early warning indicator system.The weight of risk indicators is determined by expert scoring method,comprehensive warning warning limits are calculated,and early warning intervals are constructed to provide data support for constructing early warning models.(2)Introducing the artificial immune theory into the early warning field,combining the improved negative selection algorithm with the early warning theory,and establishing an agricultural product logistics outsourcing early warning model based on the improved negative selection algorithm.Test the accuracy of the model by debugging the experimental parameters.Using MATLAB software to simulate data,test the impact of each factor on the risk level,and obtain the main risk factors affecting the risk level of agricultural product logistics outsourcing.(3)According to the main influencing factors of the three major risk levels,improving logistics service,and enhancing logistics service providers.The contact strategies are proposed,including establishing information sharing mechanism,to reduce the risk of agricultural product logistics outsourcing by reducing the information risk,circulation risk and cooperation risk,three feasible risk prevention risk level of agricultural product logistics outsourcing.